2017; 28 in 2016). That means two things: 1. Middle infielders who hit for power have more value than last season; 2. We should know the depth of both positions. In other words, what is the profile of the top shortstops compared to top second basemen. But, perhaps more importantly, which “second team” middle infielders provide you with a deeper talent pool and, thus, a better chance to win.
What makes the MI power question even more interesting is this fact: Only six players in MLB stole 30 or more bases, and four of them are middle infielders: dee gordon, Whit Merrifield, and Jose Altuve at second base and Trea Turner at SS. If you draft those players early, you’ll be in good SB position, but you may need to find at least a couple of potential power sources later in your draft to make up for the long balls you’ll be waiving by picking a speedster. That’s where our research will come in handy.
First let’s look at the average output of the top 12 shortstops and the top 12 second basemen last year:
| .Avg | HR | RBI | Runs | SB |
| 2B | .299 | 23 | 83 | 91 | 17 |
| SS | .290 | 21 | 74 | 82 | 15 |
Second basemen were a bit better, but it’s comparable output. Now let’s look at the average output of the next 16 names at each position. I expanded the selection because a few names appear at both positions, so I chose to include other contributors as well:
| .Avg | HR | RBI | Runs | SB |
| 2B | .274 | 16 | 59 | 73 | 10 |
| SS | .261 | 15 | 60 | 62 | 10 |
We see a sharper divide in batting average and a similar advantage in runs scored among the second basemen. I’d give a slight edge to the second base group, but by and large both middle infield positions provide similar talent. Besides, the point is you should be drafting skills, not last year’s stats, anyway. Educated guesses as to whose production will decline and whose will rise in 2018 are more important than ever. Here are some of our guesses:
Crush or Flush: Second Basemen
Jose Ramirez: Ramirez is the player I’m targeting in the 2nd round and he played exactly 20 games at 2B in 2017. 29 HRs, 83 RBIs, 107 runs, 17 steals and a .318 average last season – a year marked by solid skills growth. I think (if healthy) he is an easy first-round talent this year, just an eyelash behind Altuve. I’ll break down his skills growth in the 3B column, but we should all be reminded he enjoys positional flexibility in many leagues. CRUSH
Whit Merrifield: Merrifield stole 34 bases. At age 28. That’s a good thing, but is it repeatable? I’d be more enthused about Merrifield’s prospect for improvement if he were 23 or 24. He showed a nice improvement in skills (21.7 percent strikeout percentage fell to 14 percent) and his flyball rate skyrocketed from 29 percent to 40 percent, which helped him launch 19 HRs and collect 78 RBIs. I would treat his season as a ceiling and not assume statistical growth. In early ADPs, Merrifield is being selected around #80, about where Robinson Cano’s name will be called. I like Merrifield more, and I like 35 steals and 20 HRs from a second baseman who is likely to hit .280. So, it’s a crush, but don’t reach for him because you won’t see explosive growth. Minor CRUSH
Robinson Cano: Cano’s power decline was predictable (in fact, we predicted it last spring). After a drop in exit velocity and fly ball distance in 2016, he was about the same in 2017, with fewer (normalized amount) HRs. 23 HRs/98 RBIs/79 runs/.280 average is about who Cano is now at age 35. I only like him after #100 in a draft because I assume the numbers will fall, at least a little. If I need a second baseman, I’d rather have Merrifield in the same draft neighborhood or Odor a round or two later. FLUSH
Ian Happ: Happ has talents for sure (mostly power) but his other skills give me major pause when considering him this season. Consider: a 31.2 K%, a 16.1 percent Swinging strike rate (league average is around 10 percent), a lofty 25 percent HR/FB rate, and a 66.9 percent contact rate – all those numbers are within the lower 20th percentile at second base (HR/FB is in the top 20 percent, due to crash down this season). (Happ is also OF eligible, of course, playing twice as often there, but most will slot him here most days). On the plus side, 24 HRs in 413 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at, and he walked at a 9.4 percent rate, so his on base average was a plus. His .253 average, though, should be considered a ceiling until he starts to make better contact. Keeper and dynasty owners may have a different opinion, but for me, it’s a FLUSH.
Jason Kipnis, top 3 second baseman in the AL in 2018.
