Author: Jake Ciely, Senior Writer
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a high-scoring option on your bench. I developed it years ago, and it accounts for defensive quality of play by position, adjusts for game situations and strength of offenses and spits out an adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Using Fantasy Football Points allowed is valuable in itself to help make lineup decisions, but it’s imperfect, as a team facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers should give up more points and passing yards than one facing Jared Goff and the Rams. This isn’t a tool to argue benching Mike Evans for Robert Woods, but it helps you decide which RB3 is a better play or which WR4 could put up a WR2 type Week 9.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Matchup Rankings
QB Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Arizona Cardinals | SAF | 23.4 | | 14 | Oakland Raiders | MIA | 15.7 |
2 | Los Angeles Rams | NYG | 23.3 | | 15 | Carolina Panthers | ATL | 15.5 |
3 | Indianapolis Colts | HOU | 22.3 | | 16 | Baltimore Ravens | TEN | 15.1 |
4 | San Francisco 49ers | ARI | 22.0 | | 17 | New York Jets | BUF | 13.9 |
5 | Houston Texans | IND | 21.7 | | 18 | Washington Redskins | SEA | 13.5 |
6 | Dallas Cowboys | KC | 21.7 | | 19 | Green Bay Packers | DET | 12.8 |
7 | New Orleans Saints | TB | 21.0 | | 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NO | 12.6 |
8 | Buffalo Bills | NYJ | 19.7 | | 21 | Philadelphia Eagles | DEN | 11.9 |
9 | Denver Broncos | PHI | 18.9 | | 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CIN | 11.7 |
10 | Detroit Lions | GB | 18.3 | | 23 | New York Giants | LAR | 11.3 |
11 | Seattle Seahawks | WSH | 18.3 | | 24 | Atlanta Falcons | CAR | 10.9 |
12 | Kansas City Chiefs | DAL | 17.5 | | 25 | Tennessee Titans | BAL | 8.1 |
13 | Miami Dolphins | OAK | 16.9 | | 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | JAX | 7.3 |
Jared Goff vs. Andy Dalton
Who would have thought? Not only is Goff a better play than Dalton this week, I actually have to write up a recommendation for him. The only thing that would pain me more is if I had to recommend Tavon Austin or Jared Cook *shivers*. The fact is the Giants defense has been a shell of its 2016 self, and now Janoris Jenkins is suspended. This team is in disarray, and they have allowed an average of 23.2 FPPG to quarterbacks over the last four games. Goff had a two-game rough stretch with the Seahawks and Jaguars in Weeks 5-6 but is averaging 20.8 FPPG in the other five.
As for Dalton, it doesn’t get any worse than this. The Jaguars defense is terrific, and they have allowed just four passing touchdowns with their 10 interceptions. Only Marcus Mariota reached the 17-point mark, and that can with 24 rushing yards. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye rank inside the top five in most cornerback metrics, which is bad news for A.J. Green and company but terrible news for Dalton. Going back to that 17-point mark, Dalton has only topped that three times himself, and he even put up a negative-three point game to open the season against another tough pass defense, the Ravens.
Also Good:Dak Prescott – Will take more on his shoulders without Ezekiel Elliott and good matchup to do so
Also Bad:Eli Manning – Sterling Shepard is talented, but it’s a lot to ask him to be the No. 1
Other Matchup Boosted QBs: Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson, Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Matthew Stafford
RB Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Arizona Cardinals | SAF | 30.4 | | 14 | Green Bay Packers | DET | 18.1 |
2 | Houston Texans | IND | 27.6 | | 15 | San Francisco 49ers | ARI | 17.2 |
3 | Detroit Lions | GB | 24.6 | | 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NO | 17.1 |
4 | New York Giants | LAR | 22.9 | | 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | JAX | 16.8 |
5 | Miami Dolphins | OAK | 22.8 | | 18 | New York Jets | BUF | 15.9 |
6 | New Orleans Saints | TB | 22.4 | | 19 | Baltimore Ravens | TEN | 15.2 |
7 | Seattle Seahawks | WSH | 21.0 | | 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CIN | 15.1 |
8 | Tennessee Titans | BAL | 20.9 | | 21 | Oakland Raiders | MIA | 14.7 |
9 | Buffalo Bills | NYJ | 20.6 | | 22 | Washington Redskins | SEA | 12.2 |
10 | Kansas City Chiefs | DAL | 19.9 | | 23 | Denver Broncos | PHI | 11.8 |
11 | Carolina Panthers | ATL | 19.3 | | 24 | Atlanta Falcons | CAR | 11.0 |
12 | Dallas Cowboys | KC | 19.3 | | 25 | Indianapolis Colts | HOU | 10.5 |
13 | Los Angeles Rams | NYG | 18.1 | | 26 | Philadelphia Eagles | DEN | 9.3 |
Adrian Peterson vs. Frank Gore
Jared Goff is an intriguing quarterback streamer given the Giants struggles. AP Photo/Matt Dunham
This is a rubber game of sorts for Peterson after looking like the prime of his career AP in his first Cardinals game, then disappointing heavily before the bye. Drew Stanton at quarterback could hamper his potential, but the matchup is terrific, and the Cardinals could easily turn to Peterson even more to keep the ball out of Stanton’s hands. Against another weak defense (Buccaneers) Peterson was able to rush for 134 yards on 5.2 YPC. The 49ers are allowing 4.1 YPC to all running backs, and every back with at least 20 touches has reached double-digit Non-PPR points. Even Andre Ellington is an intriguing PPR flier.
Sticking with the golden oldies, Gore is on the other end of the spectrum with the Texans run defense ranking second only to the Broncos. The Texans have an extremely low 10.5 FPAD for running backs, and that’s factoring in every running back for each team. So, even if you hope that the Colts offense can manage 10.5 points for their running backs, those points would be spread across Gore and Marlon Mack at the least. The Texans have also allowed just one rushing touchdown and two running backs to top 58 rushing yards: Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt.
Also Good:Orleans Darkwa – It’s easier to attack the Rams with the run – this is the rubber game for Darkwa
Also Bad:C.J. Anderson – Talent isn’t a question, the offensive line is, and the Eagles run defense between the tackles is fierce
Other Matchup Boosted RBs: Lamar Miller, Ameer Abdullah, Kenyan Drake, Damien Williams, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry, LeSean McCoy
WR Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Dallas Cowboys | KC | 34.3 | | 14 | Carolina Panthers | ATL | 19.5 |
2 | San Francisco 49ers | ARI | 30.6 | | 15 | New York Jets | BUF | 18.5 |
3 | New Orleans Saints | TB | 28.5 | | 16 | Oakland Raiders | MIA | 18.0 |
4 | Houston Texans | IND | 27.4 | | 17 | Denver Broncos | PHI | 17.6 |
5 | Detroit Lions | GB | 27.0 | | 18 | Baltimore Ravens | TEN | 17.3 |
6 | Kansas City Chiefs | DAL | 26.6 | | 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NO | 16.3 |
7 | Indianapolis Colts | HOU | 25.2 | | 20 | Atlanta Falcons | CAR | 15.1 |
8 | Washington Redskins | SEA | 24.7 | | 21 | Seattle Seahawks | WSH | 15.0 |
9 | Los Angeles Rams | NYG | 23.5 | | 22 | New York Giants | LAR | 13.3 |
10 | Miami Dolphins | OAK | 22.9 | | 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CIN | 12.7 |
11 | Arizona Cardinals | SAF | 22.9 | | 24 | Tennessee Titans | BAL | 11.7 |
12 | Green Bay Packers | DET | 22.6 | | 25 | Cincinnati Bengals | JAX | 11.4 |
13 | Buffalo Bills | NYJ | 22.5 | | 26 | Philadelphia Eagles | DEN | 11.1 |
Marvin Jones vs. Rishard Matthews
Not only did Matthew Stafford throw for over 700 yards with five touchdowns in the two Packers’ matchups last year, Jones had 205 yards and two touchdowns in the first game and 76 yards in the second. Jones also has 96 and 128 yards in the last two games with 25 targets and 12 receptions. Unlike last year, Jones is picking up his pace at the midway point instead of disappearing after Week 4. The Packers secondary is just as susceptible to the pass as it was last year with a high 27.0 receiver FPAD. They’ve given up 11 double-digit PPR scores to receivers in seven games, and both Golden Tate and Jones can add to that total.
As for Matthews, it’s going to be hard for him to provide consistent value with Corey Davis returning, and he wasn’t even doing a great job before this. Matthews does have three receptions in each game but has a season high of 87 yards and just one touchdown. Added to all of that, the Ravens matchup is nearly as bad as facing the Jaguars or Steelers. There hasn’t been a single receiver to reach 100 receiving yards against the Ravens, and they have allowed just three touchdowns and eight double-digit PPR scores, only two of which topped 14 points.
Also Good:Ted Ginn – Was a sleeper in this Week 9’s rankings piece
Also Bad:Marqise Lee – Rough matchup and still battling injuries
Other Matchup Boosted WRs: Dez Bryant, Pierre Garcon, Mike Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Golden Tate, Tyreek Hill, T.Y. Hilton?
TE Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Los Angeles Rams | NYG | 17.7 | | 14 | Atlanta Falcons | CAR | 7.6 |
2 | Philadelphia Eagles | DEN | 13.1 | | 15 | Miami Dolphins | OAK | 7.2 |
3 | Seattle Seahawks | WSH | 12.2 | | 16 | Tennessee Titans | BAL | 7.0 |
4 | Buffalo Bills | NYJ | 11.9 | | 17 | New Orleans Saints | TB | 6.7 |
5 | New York Jets | BUF | 11.1 | | 18 | Washington Redskins | SEA | 6.5 |
6 | Indianapolis Colts | HOU | 10.4 | | 19 | Carolina Panthers | ATL | 6.3 |
7 | Denver Broncos | PHI | 9.5 | | 20 | Baltimore Ravens | TEN | 6.0 |
8 | Houston Texans | IND | 9.2 | | 21 | Arizona Cardinals | SAF | 6.0 |
9 | San Francisco 49ers | ARI | 8.9 | | 22 | Cincinnati Bengals | JAX | 5.2 |
10 | Oakland Raiders | MIA | 8.5 | | 23 | Kansas City Chiefs | DAL | 5.1 |
11 | Green Bay Packers | DET | 8.4 | | 24 | New York Giants | LAR | 5.0 |
12 | Dallas Cowboys | KC | 7.9 | | 25 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NO | 4.4 |
13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CIN | 7.7 | | 26 | Detroit Lions | GB | 3.3 |
Jack Doyle vs. Tyler Kroft
Doyle is mainly a PPR play, but he showed us last week that there is room for a top-end performance here and there. Week 9’s matchup gives Doyle a good chance to make it back-to-back Top 10 performances. While the Texans are strong against the run, as seen above, they are weak against the pass and have let every quality tight end score double-digits against them. Just last week, Jimmy Graham hauled in two touchdowns, and Doyle was averaging 6.8 targets and 5.0 receptions before last week’s barrage. Doyle should near or eclipse 10 targets again this week, and if he does, a double-digit Fantasy performance is in store, which is more than we can say for…
Tyler Kroft, who is a pure touchdown flier. Kroft has just two games with more than 4.6 Fantasy points and both came with touchdowns (two against the Browns, one against the Steelers). The Jaguars have allowed three tight end touchdowns, which is a lot given their defense, but only one of those came in their last four games, and no tight end has topped 61 yards. In fact, outside of Delanie Walker’s 61 yards in Week 2, no other tight end has topped 46 yards. This is a brutal matchup for the Bengals and everyone involved in the passing game for them.
Other Matchup Boosted TEs: Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz, Jimmy Graham, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
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