Author: Jake Ciely, Senior Writer
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a high-scoring option on your bench. I developed it years ago, and it accounts for defensive quality of play by position, adjusts for game situations and strength of offenses and spits out an adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Using Fantasy Football Points allowed is valuable in itself to help make lineup decisions, but it’s imperfect, as a team facing Tom Brady should give up more points and passing yards than one facing Jay Cutler every week. This isn’t a tool to argue benching Mike Evans for Kenny Stills, but it helps you decide which RB3 is a better play or which WR4 could put up a WR2 type Week 11.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Matchup Rankings
QB Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Kansas City Chiefs | NYG | 25.8 | | 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | DAL | 15.3 |
2 | Arizona Cardinals | HOU | 23.8 | | 16 | Chicago Bears | DET | 15.1 |
3 | New York Giants | KC | 21.9 | | 17 | Denver Broncos | CIN | 14.3 |
4 | Houston Texans | ARI | 21.3 | | 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | TEN | 14.2 |
5 | New Orleans Saints | WSH | 21.1 | | 19 | Los Angeles Chargers | BUF | 14.0 |
6 | New England Patriots | OAK | 20.8 | | 20 | Atlanta Falcons | SEA | 13.2 |
7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MIA | 20.7 | | 21 | Los Angeles Rams | MIN | 12.9 |
8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CLE | 19.5 | | 22 | Buffalo Bills | LAC | 11.8 |
9 | Miami Dolphins | TB | 19.0 | | 23 | Washington Redskins | NO | 11.4 |
10 | Oakland Raiders | NE | 18.7 | | 24 | Tennessee Titans | PIT | 10.8 |
11 | Baltimore Ravens | GB | 18.5 | | 25 | Minnesota Vikings | LAR | 10.0 |
12 | Cincinnati Bengals | DEN | 16.1 | | 26 | Detroit Lions | CHI | 9.8 |
13 | Seattle Seahawks | ATL | 15.4 | | 27 | Green Bay Packers | BAL | 8.2 |
14 | Dallas Cowboys | PHI | 15.3 | | 28 | Cleveland Browns | JAX | 7.2 |
Alex Smith vs. Matthew Stafford
Smith cooled off before the Chiefs bye with quiet games against the Steelers and Broncos, a decent game against the Cowboys and a great performance in Oakland. You can easily see by the matchups, that Smith throwing for at least one touchdown in each game is actually a testament to his 2017 performance. Smith has put himself in a must-start conversation and Top 10 quarterback value the rest of the season. For those concerned about the cool down though, just as with the Raiders, Smith should come out of the bye hot… especially with how Andy Reid teams perform after the bye week. The Giants are the best matchup for quarterbacks this week with the linebackers being a walking MASH unit and the secondary giving up. Smith is even in the Top 5 discussion in Week 11.
As for Stafford, the Lions have been passing more of late, and Stafford has turned back into an appealing Fantasy quarterback. That won’t be the case this week, as the Bears have quietly been one of the toughest matchups for opposing quarterbacks. They have a low 9.8 FPAD for quarterbacks and are even stronger at home. Outside of Aaron Rodgers, no quarterback has thrown for multiple touchdowns. In fact, the Bears have given up just five passing touchdowns in their eight games. Rodgers is only one of two quarterbacks to top 16 Fantasy points against them, and Matt Ryan’s performance came way back in Week 1.
Also Good:Eli Manning – Discussed in the waiver piece and rankings/sleepers.
Also Bad:Case Keenum – The ride could end this week.
Other Matchup Boosted QBs: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr
RB Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Los Angeles Chargers | BUF | 34.3 | | 15 | Cleveland Browns | JAX | 17.0 |
2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MIA | 24.9 | | 16 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CLE | 16.7 |
3 | Miami Dolphins | TB | 24.6 | | 17 | Minnesota Vikings | LAR | 16.2 |
4 | New England Patriots | OAK | 24.0 | | 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | DEN | 16.0 |
5 | Kansas City Chiefs | NYG | 22.1 | | 19 | Green Bay Packers | BAL | 15.8 |
6 | Chicago Bears | DET | 22.0 | | 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | TEN | 14.6 |
7 | Denver Broncos | CIN | 21.7 | | 21 | Houston Texans | ARI | 14.4 |
8 | New York Giants | KC | 21.5 | | 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | DAL | 13.9 |
9 | Baltimore Ravens | GB | 20.9 | | 23 | Washington Redskins | NO | 13.0 |
10 | Buffalo Bills | LAC | 20.3 | | 24 | Atlanta Falcons | SEA | 12.6 |
11 | New Orleans Saints | WSH | 19.8 | | 25 | Dallas Cowboys | PHI | 10.7 |
12 | Detroit Lions | CHI | 19.3 | | 26 | Los Angeles Rams | MIN | 10.6 |
13 | Oakland Raiders | NE | 18.6 | | 27 | Tennessee Titans | PIT | 10.5 |
14 | Seattle Seahawks | ATL | 18.1 | | 28 | Arizona Cardinals | HOU | 10.0 |
Damien Williams vs. Alfred Morris
Cooper has the defensive matchup to post his second best game of the season. Image Credit: AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
While Kenyan Drake is clearly the better talent, the Dolphins insist on turning to Williams, even as the lead option. Drake didn’t make his mark until later in the game last week with Williams leading the way. Williams is a good weapon in the passing game, and the Buccaneers provide a matchup where it won’t matter much who “leads” as long as Williams hits double-digit touches. Outside of last week’s game, the Bucs have given up a double-digit PPR score each week with more of them coming from pass catchers. Drake is a good pass catcher as well, but Williams has the slight edge in that department.
This matchup is about the PPR value, and arguably, Morris is even riskier in a Non-PPR league. The Eagles are dominant against the run, especially between the tackles. They are more forgiving to pass-catching running backs, but that is definitely not Morris’ strong suit. That’s Rod Smith’s value. Every running back that has managed to hit double-digits against the Eagles has been a strong pass-catcher or pure passing-down option. Not one between-the-tackles type has even topped five Fantasy points. Add in the likelihood that the Eagles push the scoring, and Morris is best left benched where possible.
Also Good:Doug Martin – As with Manning, Martin was in the sleeper section this week.
Also Bad:Derrick Henry – His value is in blowouts or terrific matchups. This is neither.
Other Matchup Boosted RBs: Melvin Gordon, Patriots mess, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard, C.J. Anderson, Orleans Darkwa, Alex Collins, LeSean McCoy
WR Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Arizona Cardinals | HOU | 36.1 | | 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CLE | 19.9 |
2 | New York Giants | KC | 35.1 | | 16 | Tennessee Titans | PIT | 18.3 |
3 | Kansas City Chiefs | NYG | 32.3 | | 17 | Buffalo Bills | LAC | 17.2 |
4 | Oakland Raiders | NE | 30.4 | | 18 | Detroit Lions | CHI | 16.6 |
5 | Baltimore Ravens | GB | 30.0 | | 19 | Los Angeles Rams | MIN | 16.2 |
6 | Miami Dolphins | TB | 25.3 | | 20 | Seattle Seahawks | ATL | 16.0 |
7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MIA | 24.5 | | 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | BUF | 15.1 |
8 | Houston Texans | ARI | 24.2 | | 22 | Dallas Cowboys | PHI | 14.9 |
9 | Philadelphia Eagles | DAL | 23.9 | | 23 | Denver Broncos | CIN | 13.8 |
10 | New England Patriots | OAK | 23.6 | | 24 | Minnesota Vikings | LAR | 13.7 |
11 | Atlanta Falcons | SEA | 22.6 | | 25 | Washington Redskins | NO | 12.4 |
12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | TEN | 21.2 | | 26 | Green Bay Packers | BAL | 11.5 |
13 | New Orleans Saints | WSH | 21.2 | | 27 | Cincinnati Bengals | DEN | 11.2 |
14 | Chicago Bears | DET | 20.0 | | 28 | Cleveland Browns | JAX | 9.0 |
Amari Cooper vs. davante Adams
It’s been an extremely disappointing season for Cooper, but as with his huge Thursday night game, a matchup with the Patriots provides the potential for a good week. Some have argued that the Patriots defense is playing better of late, but then they just let both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas top 15 points. In fact, the Patriots have allowed 17 double-digit PPR games to receivers already. That’s nearly two per game. Even though Michael Crabtree is (still) the best Raiders receiver, Cooper has more upside this week than he has for most of the season.
Fortunately for Adams, Brett Hundley loves to target him. That fact has kept Adams’ value alive, but the matchup this week points to a rough day. The Ravens have the third lowest FPAD for receivers, giving up just five touchdowns to them on the year… and two of them came in their last game against the Titans. Only four receivers have hit the 13-point PPR mark against the Ravens, and three of them came with a touchdown. With the Ravens ability to limit the pass and Hundley’s continued struggles, even Adams is a risky start in Week 11 for the Packers receivers.
Also Good:Larry Fitzgerald – Even with the change to Blaine Gabbert, the Texans defense simply can’t stop the pass.
Also Bad:Kenny Britt – You think he’s showing up again, this season, let alone against the Jaguars?
Other Matchup Boosted WRs: Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, Brandin Cooks
TE Matchup Rankings
Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD | | Rank | Team | Opp | FPAD |
---|
1 | Cincinnati Bengals | DEN | 17.1 | | 15 | Miami Dolphins | TB | 6.6 |
2 | Kansas City Chiefs | NYG | 16.2 | | 16 | Chicago Bears | DET | 6.0 |
3 | New Orleans Saints | WSH | 12.0 | | 17 | New York Giants | KC | 5.9 |
4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | CLE | 11.6 | | 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | TEN | 5.9 |
5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MIA | 10.6 | | 19 | Minnesota Vikings | LAR | 5.5 |
6 | New England Patriots | OAK | 10.3 | | 20 | Buffalo Bills | LAC | 5.2 |
7 | Dallas Cowboys | PHI | 9.8 | | 21 | Washington Redskins | NO | 5.1 |
8 | Houston Texans | ARI | 8.8 | | 22 | Oakland Raiders | NE | 5.1 |
9 | Los Angeles Chargers | BUF | 8.6 | | 23 | Cleveland Browns | JAX | 5.0 |
10 | Arizona Cardinals | HOU | 8.5 | | 24 | Seattle Seahawks | ATL | 4.8 |
11 | Denver Broncos | CIN | 8.4 | | 25 | Los Angeles Rams | MIN | 4.6 |
12 | Green Bay Packers | BAL | 8.2 | | 26 | Tennessee Titans | PIT | 4.3 |
13 | Philadelphia Eagles | DAL | 7.8 | | 27 | Detroit Lions | CHI | 3.5 |
14 | Atlanta Falcons | SEA | 7.7 | | 28 | Baltimore Ravens | GB | 3.3 |
Cameron Brate vs. Eric Ebron
Owners are frustrated with Brate after his last two games totaling just two catches and 19 yards. However, Brate had scored double-digits in every game since Week 2 before that and had a run of four straight games with a touchdown. The Dolphins give Brate the opportunity to get back on track. They have fallen apart defensively with four double-digit scores given up in the last five games. The game against the Ravens didn’t see a score that high, but Ben Watson caught a touchdown, as did Ed Dickson last week. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up this week, Brate is in line for a TE1 performance.
I hope you enjoyed Ebron’s Week 10 performance because he’s not repeating it this week. The Bears have the second lowest FPAD for tight ends and have given up just two touchdowns to them… none since Week 5 (Kyle Rudolph). In fact, in Non-PPR, no tight end has topped 2.9 Fantasy points since Rudolph with two negative performances! Ebron has just two scores over six points in Non-PPR and over eight points in PPR. He won’t make it three this week.
Other Matchup Boosted TEs: Tyler Kroft, Travis Kelce, Marcedes Lewis, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten
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