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AFC

There were major playoff probability shifts in the AFC this week, none more significant than the Bengals leap in the rankings and Baltimore’s large decline. If Baltimore had beaten the Bengals at home their probability would not have increased much, but by losing a game at home to a division rival their chances dropped from first to third in the division. The Bengals benefited massively improving their playoff chances to nearly 69 percent. The Bengals have won 3 games they were heavy underdogs in and the rest of their schedule has a number of teams they are ‘supposed’ to beat. It will be interesting to see how the Bengals stand up to the pressure of being favored. Pittsburgh saw their chances increase because 1) they beat Detroit and Baltimore lost but 2) their running game has gone from one of the worst to potentially one of the best with the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall.

The Broncos impressively racked up another win and their playoff probability is up to 76 percent. The pressure is squarely on the Chargers to win on Monday Night. If the Broncos win and their defense once again holds a potent offense to under 21 points they will not only have a substantial lead in the division, but they will also have the statistical proof that their defense is indeed #1 in the league right now.

The Colts already have a strangle hold on the AFC South. Every other team lost this week and the Colts amazingly have a 99.6 percent chance of winning the AFC South. In the pre-season this was the most competitive division in the AFC West. Right now the only real chance the Colts have of slipping is a Peyton Manning injury. Their high chances are not just due to being undefeated, it has just as much to do with the fact that their passing offense is so good and the Achilles heel of many upcoming opponents is pass defense.

The Miami Dolphins were actually impressive for an 0-3 team and after 2 big division wins where they scored over 30 points they are now moving rapidly up the AFC East rankings. By beating the Jets they actually have a slightly higher probability of winning the division despite being 1 game behind New York. The Patriots are still leading the AFC East in winning the division despite losing to Denver and seeing their playoff probability plummet over 20 percent.

NFC

The Falcons offense exploded and their defense was impressive in their win over San Francisco. While New Orleans is still in control of the NFC South, Atlanta is now a solid 4^th in the NFC in overall playoff probability. Last year’s NFC South champ, Carolina, beat Washington by 3 points but actually saw their already slim playoff probability decline slightly as there is little statistical proof that this team can return to being an elite team, despite their win.

The disappointing 49ers saw the biggest drop in playoff probability --- a whopping 45.5 percentage points. The combination of a home loss, Arizona’s win, and Seattle’s impressive win all took their toll on San Francisco. San Francisco would not have dropped as significantly if this were a close game, but when you allow 45 points and struggle against both the pass and run it has a negative impact on their forecasted performance the rest of the season. Seemingly overnight, the NFC West is once again a highly competitive 3 team race.

There were not many major shifts in the NFC East as all 3 contenders (the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles) won games they were expected to win an all 3 teams saw their playoff probabilities improve slightly. Washington has had a very easy schedule with just 1 quality opponent but still only have a 2-3 record. Washington is favored next week vs Kansas City, but after that are only favored in 1 game the rest of the season.

The NFC North was relatively quiet this season with Chicago and Green Bay both on Bye weeks and Detroit losing to Pittsburgh, as expected.

If things go as expected Florida and Alabama should meet in the SEC Championship Game and many will consider this the “real” National Championship. Last season the Gators won 31-20 coming from behind with the last 14 points of the game. AccuScore ran simulations of the 2009 SEC Championship Game based on the data we have so far after Week 6.

FLORIDA BY THE SLIMMEST MARGIN

In 10,000 simulations the two teams are virtually inseparable, although Florida is getting the slight edge over Alabama winning 51 percent of the simulations by an average of just 0.3 points. Florida is averaging more passing yards than Alabama, but Alabama is having more success running the ball. Florida has a 0.01 edge in total offensive touchdowns 2.41 to 2.40. In games this close turnover margin is typically the deciding factor and this is where Florida is getting its edge. The Florida defense is recovering 1.82 Alabama turnovers vs 1.47 for Alabama’s defense.

ALABAMA CAN RUN ON FLORIDA

Both teams dominate teams running the ball while also have dominating run defenses. In simulations Alabama, behind a strong effort from Mark Ingram, has more success running the ball. Alabama is rushing for 3.67 yards per carry and over 150 yards vs just 110 yards on 2.82 yards per carry for Florida. Alabama’s defense is expected to stop Florida from getting many explosive runs while also limiting Tim Tebow to just short bruising 2 yard pickups.

TIM TEBOW OUTPLAYS GREG MCELROY

Tebow may not be able to run over the Alabama defense, but he showed last year that it can be nearly impossible to stop Tebow from hurting you in both the running and passing game. Last year Tebow passed for 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. In 2009 simulations Tebow is completing a higher percentage than Alabama’s Greg McElroy while also having a better than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. McElroy is averaging 1 interception which is actually pretty good against the Florida defense, but McElroy’s +0.37 more INTs than Tebow is the source of Florida’s turnover margin advantage and ultimate overall 51% edge.

If McElroy throws no interceptions and can complete over 50 percent of his passes then Alabama is favored, but if he makes any mistakes or completes under 50 percent then Florida should repeat as SEC Champions.

Braylon Edwards was spectacular in 2007 with 80 receptions, nearly 1300 yards, 16 TDs and 16.1 yards per reception. Poor QB play and his own problem dropping catchable balls has resulted in a huge drop-off since ’07.

Time will tell if Braylon Edwards emerges as the #1 over Jerricho Cotchery in New York, but if he can establish himself as a solid #2, his production per target (fewer drops, more yards per reception, more TDs) should increase substantially playing with a better offense that can run the ball well and a QB who actually completes over 57 percent of his passes.

Before the trade AccuScore gave the Jets a 56 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 34 percent chance of winning the AFC East. With a motivated, more “stable” Edwards the Jets improved their chances of winning the division to 38 percent and chances of making the playoffs to 61 percent.

I’ve seen many people discounting the Dodgers and already penciling in the Cardinals into the World Series. Doing so does a complete disservice to the rest of the National League. The Dodgers have homefield as a result of the league’s best record, and the best run differential (+169 or 79 more than St. Louis). The love for the Cardinals stems from their two Cy Young caliber starters in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, and the best hitter in the game Albert Pujols.

The simulations are based on the following pitching match-ups:

Game 1: Carpenter vs. Wolf

Game 2: Wainwright vs. Kershaw

Game 3: Piniero vs. Padilla

Game 4: Lohse vs. Billingsley

Game 5: Carpenter vs. Wolf

The projections for this series actually back-up the general belief that the Cardinals are the big favorites, but there are a few extenuating circumstances. L.A. was dealt a huge blow when it was learned that Hiroki Kuroda would not be available (possibly for the entire playoffs) to pitch Game 3. His presence compared to Padilla in St. Louis actually would have swung Game 3 11% with the Dodgers winning 56% of the time. Needless to say his injury is a massive loss.

The thing that stands out the most in these projections is the advantage provided by both Carpenter and Wainwright on the road (1, 2, and 5). Carpenter gives the Cardinals a 6% edge in both Games 1 and 5 against Wolf. Wainwright provides a big edge against Kershaw in Game 2, but Kershaw does have the talent to match zeros with him on the scoreboard. I see that second outing as the pivotal game. Chad Billingsley has had his share of problems late in the season, but he should provide the Dodgers an edge over either Lohse or Smoltz for the Cardinals. The use of Vicente Padilla in the third contest is questionable, and magnifies the loss of Kuroda even further.

Another issue to pay attention to is the management, or mis-management, of the bullpen and lineups. It has already been announced that Ronnie Belliard will start at 2B for the Dodgers in Game 1. While Belliard has been hot at the plate over the past few weeks, his underlying stats indicate he is an inferior hitter as well as fielder to Orlando Hudson. Joe Torre is not maximizing his talent by playing Belliard.

The Cardinals will have to deal with questions in the rotation and bullpen. Either Kyle Lohse or John Smoltz will likely start Game 4. Both players will be available out of the bullpen in Los Angeles. Their presence as relievers could be very beneficial as closer Ryan Franklin has struggled after being the beneficiary of lots of good luck in the first half. The other middle relievers are unproven and a veteran like Smoltz could be key.

This series between the AL West winning Angels and the Wild Card Red Sox provides an interesting match-up because of the recent history between both teams.

This series projection is based on the following pitching assumptions:

Game 1: Lackey vs. Lester

Game 2: Weaver vs. Beckett

Game 3: Kazmir vs. Bucholz

Game 4: Saunders vs. Matsuzaka

Game 5: Lackey vs. Lester

The schedule would allow Both Game 1 starters to pitch in a potential Game 4 on three days’ rest and the Game 2 starters to pitch Game 5 on normal rest. This simulation does not include that scenario.

With Games 1, 2, and 5 at home in Anaheim the Angels are slight favorites in what are fairly even pitching match-ups. Game 3 is a virtual coin flip with Scott Kazmir having a strong history against the Red Sox, and Bucholz’s poor first half work factored in. If Bucholz performs closer to his talent level as he has in the second half of the season then that game could tip in favor of the Red Sox. The biggest simulation difference is Game 4 with Dice-K against Saunders with Boston having a 6% edge.

Overall the Angels are slight favorites winning the series 51% of the time. This is a result of a combination of homefield advantage, better overall performance this season, and better recent performance. The Angels finished the year on a 7-1 spurt and 11-6 over their last 17 games while the Red Sox were swept by both the Yankees and Blue Jays the last week of September.

If the Angels are able to maintain their projected edge and win this series it would run counter to the recent past playoff history. Boston swept Los Angeles of Anaheim in both 2004 and 2007 in the Division Series while winning 3-1 a year ago leading most to assume the Sox will win again. Psychological edge or not, this is likely the deepest rotation the Angels have had this decade, and the lineup is certainly more balanced around Vladimir Guerrero than it was a season ago.

Many fans might be thinking this is a repeat of 2007 when the Rockies got a bit lucky and made a shocking run to the World Series. This season is not a fluke as Colorado rode an improved rotation, a typically strong lineup, and the NL’s best home record to a playoff spot. The Phillies’ core of Hamels, Utley, Rollins, and Howard were buttressed this year by the additions of Cliff Lee and Raul Ibañez.

This simulation is based on the following pitching assumptions:

Game 1: Jimenez vs. Lee

Game 2: Cook vs. Hamels

Game 3: Marquis vs. Blanton

Game 4: De la Rosa vs. Martinez

Game 5: Jimenez vs. Lee

This series is more difficult to project because of the uncertainty with both pitching rotations. The Phillies are set with Lee, Hamels, and Blanton but the Game 4 starter could either be Pedro Martinez or rookie J.A. Happ. Happ probably deserves the start on performance, but he would be better able to adjust to a bullpen role having done so previously, and the Phillies lack a power left-handed reliever due to the absence of J.C. Romero.

Colorado has several pitching issues of its own, first of all the health of Jorge de la Rosa. He suffered a groin strain against the Dodgers last week, and it has yet to be determined if he will be healthy enough to pitch. If de la Rosa is fine, either Jason Marquis or Jason Hammel would pitch one of the middle games. Both have bullpen experience, but Marquis had a slightly better season so we are projecting him to start.

Hamels and Lee, when they are on, are among the best pitchers in the National League. Having both pitch at home gives the Phillies at least double digit simulation advantages in Games 1 and 2 as well as a potential Game 5. Both are quite capable of being the number 1 starter, but in this series that honor has fallen upon Lee. Going with this alignment and pitching Lee twice actually improves Philadelphia’s chances by 2% overall. Despite Lee’s recent struggles, he has been better overall than Hamels. Homefield for Colorado in Games 3 and 4 is helping to even their projected chances in those games. A fully healthy De la Rosa would be a huge factor on if the Rockies are favored in one of those two games.

Both lineups feature great power which could lead to some big run totals in these two ballparks. Four different Phillies have hit 30+ home runs while 3 others have at least 10. Eight different Rockies have at least 13 home runs led by Troy Tulowitzki with 32. A big factor in this series could be the bullpens. Philadelphia has struggled mightily trying to find a closer because of Brad Lidge’s struggles. Moving Ryan Madson to the 9th inning role would create another void in the set-up role. Colorado should be set at the end of games, but Huston Street has dealt with some recent injuries and Franklin Morales is relatively new to a late-inning reliever role.

Both teams have issues mostly related to pitching. Still, Philadelphia has two true ace caliber starters, and could possibly have them pitch in 4 of the 5 games in the series. That would be a tall task for Colorado to overcome.