AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

AFC

The New England Patriots were the big winners in the AFC this week. Not only did they win while the Jets lost, the way the Patriots won --- a dominating offensive performance --- bodes well for the rest of the Patriots season. New England improved their playoff chances by over 35 percent because their chances of winning the AFC East improved to from 40 percent last week to 78 percent. The Jets not only have lost 3 in a row, they lost their last 2 to division rivals. These losses, especially at home, really take their toll and the Jets now have just an 13 percent chance of making the playoffs. AccuScore expected Sanchez to struggle when the weather got worse given his lack of experience dealing with the elements and his Week 6 performance only validated this assessment. This does not bode well for his ability to play well @New England in Week 11, @ Buffalo in Week 13, vs Atlanta in Week 15 and the Bengals in Week 17. The Dolphins are actually ahead of the Jets now in playoff probability despite being only 2-3.

The Steelers chances improved considerably thanks to the Bengals upset loss and an injury to Antwan Odom. The Bengals still have a solid 47 percent chance at making the playoffs, but a loss to the Texans at home definitely hurt. Even though the Ravens lost a game they were expected to lose their playoff chances still dropped nearly 20 percent because of the way they lost. The Vikings game seemed to confirm that the Ravens pass defense is one of the worst in the league and the run defense is potentially mediocre. No matter how the offense plays the Ravens chances against Pittsburgh, the Colts, Packers and other prolific offenses just went down.

The AFC South appears all but over with the Colts having a 99 percent chance of winning the division. The Colts have a 2 game lead, but more importantly, they are playing at a much higher level than the 3-3 Jaguars who barely edged out the Rams at home, and the Texans, who are good enough to beat anyone and are inconsistent enough to lose to anyone. Houston are the team best equipped to make a move in the AFC because they have not played the Colts yet and still have a theoretical chance of beating the Colts twice. The challenge for Houston is they have a tough schedule with just 2 games in which they are heavily favored.

The Monday Night Football game established the Denver Broncos as the class of the AFC West. Not only did they beat the favored Chargers on the road which significantly boosts their chances of winning the division, it was also the way they won which involved out-playing the Chargers in every way possible – better offense, vastly superior defense, more big special teams play and better coaching. The Broncos are now second to just the Colts in playoff probability at over 97 percent. The Chargers loss helped limit the damage to the Bengals and Ravens chances who are their primary Wild Card competitors.

NFC

The Cardinals are actually the #1 run defense (statistically speaking) and by destroying Seattle on the road they re-established themselves as the favorite in the NFC West. Even though the 49ers have the same record and have a big road win over Arizona the Cardinals are favored to win the division based on quality of play the rest of the year. Most would concede that the Cardinals are the better offense, but right now they are playing well defensively which is why they are performing better in simulations than the 49ers. Seattle was hoping that a healthy Matt Hasselbeck would carry their team to the post-season, but after the debacle on Sunday and the season ending injury to Lofa Totupa the Seahawks only have a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Saints dominated the Giants and statistically speaking, this team not only has no flaws, they arguably are strong in every area of the game. The passing game gets the press but this team runs well and is playing great defense. The Saints still ‘only’ have an 85 percent chance of winning the division because the Falcons are staying close. Atlanta improved their playoff chances by +7 percent because by beating Chicago they have the edge over a potential Wild Card competitor. Amazingly, the Panthers and Tampa Bay have less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs combined.

There was only minimal movement in the NFC North. Minnesota won an exciting game over Baltimore but it was a game they were expected to win and their chances improved just 3.5 percent. The Bears only dropped 3 percent because they lost a game they were expected to lose. The Packers’ chances changed the most improving +10 percent because they beat Detroit and key Wild Card competitors, Chicago and Philadelphia lost.

The Eagles stunning loss to the Raiders dropped their chances 30 percent. When you are looking to win 11 games and you lose a game in which you are an 80 percent+ favorite, it takes a major toll on playoff chances. The Eagles will not only need to avoid any future upset losses, but they will also likely need to sweep the Cowboys to secure a Wild Card spot. The idle Cowboys improved their chances by 12 percent because of the 3 other NFC East teams all losing. The Giants may have been humbled in New Orleans, but their loss only hurt them by 7 percent because they were not expected to upset the Saints. The Giants still have a solid 61 percent chance to win the NFC East and a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Dodgers and Phillies will reprise their 2008 series and meet in this year’s National League Championship Series. This is the fifth time Los Angeles and Philadelphia have played for the pennant. Starting pitching, as in the opening round, will once again take center stage as both teams have some slight questions in their rotations.

The baseline simulation assumes these pitching match-ups:

Game 1 – Wolf vs. Hamels

Game 2 – Kershaw vs. Martinez

Game 3 – Lee vs. Padilla

Game 4 – Happ vs. Billingsley

Game 5 – Hamels vs. Wolf

Game 6 – Kershaw vs. Martinez

Game 7 – Padilla vs. Lee

Because Cliff Lee started against the Rockies on Monday, he is projected to be the Game 3 and Game 7 starter in this series. He could pitch in Game 2, but it would be on short rest. Joe Blanton was apparently not in the final mix to start for the Phillies in the NLDS so he is projected solely as a relief pitcher here. The Dodgers meanwhile could choose to flip-flop Kershaw and Wolf as they were prepared to do if their NLDS series was extended. They will also have the same questions about Chad Billingsley to deal with.

Overall, the Phillies have a small 51% edge in the series mostly due to their starting pitching. Hamels and Lee will be able to start at least 4 of the 7 games. Hamels could also start Game 4 on short rest. Whenever they pitch, Lee and Hamels will give the Phillies the edge. The pair are terrific, but the Dodgers already showed against the Cardinals that they are perfectly capable of beating Cy Young caliber starters.

The pivotal games appear to be Game 3 and Game 5 in Philadelphia. Vicente Padilla is likely to oppose Cliff Lee which looks like a big mismatch on paper. Padilla though, if he can continue at the level he showed against St. Louis could provide a big boost to the Dodgers chances. If he can match Lee and hand the ball off to the bullpen for a possible win it would swing the series because the game has the largest simulation spread of the seven games. Game 5 is pivotal because it is projected as a complete coin-flip between Wolf and Hamels in Philadelphia which each team winning 50% of the time.

L.A.’s bullpen will once again have a big advantage in this series. With Hong-Chih Kuo and Ronald Belisario setting up George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers have no questions about who will be getting the finals outs of games. The Phillies will be playing match-ups and likely utilizing starters on their off-days as relievers. Brad Lidge finished Monday’s game against Colorado, but not before Scott Eyre got 2 outs to start the inning. Lidge has had arguably the worst season of any closer in baseball history. If he struggles, it would create a negative domino effect through the Phillies’ staff. A more innovative solution would be to use either Happ, Blanton, or even Martinez in the end game.

Both lineups are fairly balanced receiving contributions from players up and down the lineup. The big hitter for the Phillies, Ryan Howard, has a severe left-right split that Joe Torre should exploit every time possible late in games with either Kuo or Sherrill. Raul Ibañez has also shown a platoon split throughout his career (although not this season so far). The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is also susceptible to left-handed pitching, but he will be sandwiched by right-handed power hitters (Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez).

A key to this series could be the health (or lack thereof) of Dodger pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. The right-hander has performed very well since suffering a concussion on August 15^th in Arizona. In five September starts he posted a 2.79 ERA with 25 strikeouts and just 7 walks in 29 innings.

Because of Padilla’s performance down the stretch and in the NLDS, AccuScore projects him to stay in the rotation. This scenario shows what would happen if Billingsley were to be replaced by Kuroda in Game 4. Kuroda would actually make the Dodgers a favorite against J.A. Happ, which is doubly significant because it would be on the road in Philadelphia. This shift would also make push the Dodgers from a slight underdog in this series to a slight favorite. The numbers show that the two teams are fairly evenly matched so every little bit takes on even greater importance.

The Angels have decided to forgo the opportunity to pitch ace John Lackey potentially three times in this series, and utilize two left-handers in a four man rotation. The projected Angels rotation is Lackey in Game 1 followed by Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, and then Scott Kazmir. This is reflected in the new series projection below:

The Yankees have given indications that they plan on using a three-man rotation with CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettite. That would allow them to use ace Sabathia three times including a potential Game 7. This is the most likely scenario unless something were to happen such as injury, or an unusually high pitch count for Sabathia in Game 1.

In my first preview, the three man rotation had given the Yankees a boost. New York was projected to win the series 62% of the time, but that had projected Weaver in Game 2 followed by Kazmir and Saunders at home. The actual rotation has pushed Kazmir to Game 4 with Saunders a lefthander pitching on the road.

With the rotation order settled (and with Ervin Santana in the pen) the Angels have improved their outlook slightly by the following percentages:

Even with the Yankees going with only their three best starters*, it appears Mike Scioscia’s rotation decisions are the right ones. Saunders projects to do just as well as Jered Weaver in Game 2. Being a lefty, he may be able to limit the effects of the new Yankee Stadium’s short right-field dimensions. Saunder’s has also had success in the past in old Yankee Stadium. Both were mentioned by Scioscia as reasons for giving Saunders the start on the road. Weaver improves the outlook against Pettite by 4%. Kazmir also improves the Game 4 match-up for the Angels by 4%. This is possibly because Kazmir has pitched much better in Angel Stadium in his career than in New York. He has made four starts in each city and posted a significantly lower ERA (3.16) in Anaheim than in New York (5.04 in the old Stadium).

*There is the possibility of rain in New York. In the event of a postponement, the Yankees would likely use four starters meaning either Chad Gaudin or Joba Chamberlain would start a game in Anaheim.

Interestingly, if the Angels themselves decided to go with a three-man rotation, it would not help their chances significantly if at all.

Even with their ace, Lackey, pitching against Sabathia in Games 1, 4, and 7, the Angels have the same overall winning percentage (43%). The difference appears to be the performance of Kazmir which is offsetting gains made by Lackey and Weaver. Kazmir though has performed better since moving over to Anaheim and being reunited with his former pitching coach Mike Butcher. If his late season improvements are real and a result of some reported slight mechanical tweaks, he actually should be projected to do better than his overall numbers would indicate.

The argument for excluding Saunders would be the tradeoff of another start by the team’s best pitcher who has a proven track record of excellence in the postseason. Saunders could also be used as a lefty out of the pen in multiple games to combat the likes of Cano, Damon and Matsui. The Angels currently lacks a left-handed middle reliever aside from closer Brian Fuentes. Adding a lefty in the bullpen, and replacing your fourth starter with your clear ace is a tradeoff I would make without thinking. Mike Scioscia doesn’t feel the same. Time will tell if his decision will payoff.

AFC

There were major playoff probability shifts in the AFC this week, none more significant than the Bengals leap in the rankings and Baltimore’s large decline. If Baltimore had beaten the Bengals at home their probability would not have increased much, but by losing a game at home to a division rival their chances dropped from first to third in the division. The Bengals benefited massively improving their playoff chances to nearly 69 percent. The Bengals have won 3 games they were heavy underdogs in and the rest of their schedule has a number of teams they are ‘supposed’ to beat. It will be interesting to see how the Bengals stand up to the pressure of being favored. Pittsburgh saw their chances increase because 1) they beat Detroit and Baltimore lost but 2) their running game has gone from one of the worst to potentially one of the best with the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall.

The Broncos impressively racked up another win and their playoff probability is up to 76 percent. The pressure is squarely on the Chargers to win on Monday Night. If the Broncos win and their defense once again holds a potent offense to under 21 points they will not only have a substantial lead in the division, but they will also have the statistical proof that their defense is indeed #1 in the league right now.

The Colts already have a strangle hold on the AFC South. Every other team lost this week and the Colts amazingly have a 99.6 percent chance of winning the AFC South. In the pre-season this was the most competitive division in the AFC West. Right now the only real chance the Colts have of slipping is a Peyton Manning injury. Their high chances are not just due to being undefeated, it has just as much to do with the fact that their passing offense is so good and the Achilles heel of many upcoming opponents is pass defense.

The Miami Dolphins were actually impressive for an 0-3 team and after 2 big division wins where they scored over 30 points they are now moving rapidly up the AFC East rankings. By beating the Jets they actually have a slightly higher probability of winning the division despite being 1 game behind New York. The Patriots are still leading the AFC East in winning the division despite losing to Denver and seeing their playoff probability plummet over 20 percent.

NFC

The Falcons offense exploded and their defense was impressive in their win over San Francisco. While New Orleans is still in control of the NFC South, Atlanta is now a solid 4^th in the NFC in overall playoff probability. Last year’s NFC South champ, Carolina, beat Washington by 3 points but actually saw their already slim playoff probability decline slightly as there is little statistical proof that this team can return to being an elite team, despite their win.

The disappointing 49ers saw the biggest drop in playoff probability --- a whopping 45.5 percentage points. The combination of a home loss, Arizona’s win, and Seattle’s impressive win all took their toll on San Francisco. San Francisco would not have dropped as significantly if this were a close game, but when you allow 45 points and struggle against both the pass and run it has a negative impact on their forecasted performance the rest of the season. Seemingly overnight, the NFC West is once again a highly competitive 3 team race.

There were not many major shifts in the NFC East as all 3 contenders (the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles) won games they were expected to win an all 3 teams saw their playoff probabilities improve slightly. Washington has had a very easy schedule with just 1 quality opponent but still only have a 2-3 record. Washington is favored next week vs Kansas City, but after that are only favored in 1 game the rest of the season.

The NFC North was relatively quiet this season with Chicago and Green Bay both on Bye weeks and Detroit losing to Pittsburgh, as expected.

If things go as expected Florida and Alabama should meet in the SEC Championship Game and many will consider this the “real” National Championship. Last season the Gators won 31-20 coming from behind with the last 14 points of the game. AccuScore ran simulations of the 2009 SEC Championship Game based on the data we have so far after Week 6.

FLORIDA BY THE SLIMMEST MARGIN

In 10,000 simulations the two teams are virtually inseparable, although Florida is getting the slight edge over Alabama winning 51 percent of the simulations by an average of just 0.3 points. Florida is averaging more passing yards than Alabama, but Alabama is having more success running the ball. Florida has a 0.01 edge in total offensive touchdowns 2.41 to 2.40. In games this close turnover margin is typically the deciding factor and this is where Florida is getting its edge. The Florida defense is recovering 1.82 Alabama turnovers vs 1.47 for Alabama’s defense.

ALABAMA CAN RUN ON FLORIDA

Both teams dominate teams running the ball while also have dominating run defenses. In simulations Alabama, behind a strong effort from Mark Ingram, has more success running the ball. Alabama is rushing for 3.67 yards per carry and over 150 yards vs just 110 yards on 2.82 yards per carry for Florida. Alabama’s defense is expected to stop Florida from getting many explosive runs while also limiting Tim Tebow to just short bruising 2 yard pickups.

TIM TEBOW OUTPLAYS GREG MCELROY

Tebow may not be able to run over the Alabama defense, but he showed last year that it can be nearly impossible to stop Tebow from hurting you in both the running and passing game. Last year Tebow passed for 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. In 2009 simulations Tebow is completing a higher percentage than Alabama’s Greg McElroy while also having a better than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. McElroy is averaging 1 interception which is actually pretty good against the Florida defense, but McElroy’s +0.37 more INTs than Tebow is the source of Florida’s turnover margin advantage and ultimate overall 51% edge.

If McElroy throws no interceptions and can complete over 50 percent of his passes then Alabama is favored, but if he makes any mistakes or completes under 50 percent then Florida should repeat as SEC Champions.

Braylon Edwards was spectacular in 2007 with 80 receptions, nearly 1300 yards, 16 TDs and 16.1 yards per reception. Poor QB play and his own problem dropping catchable balls has resulted in a huge drop-off since ’07.

Time will tell if Braylon Edwards emerges as the #1 over Jerricho Cotchery in New York, but if he can establish himself as a solid #2, his production per target (fewer drops, more yards per reception, more TDs) should increase substantially playing with a better offense that can run the ball well and a QB who actually completes over 57 percent of his passes.

Before the trade AccuScore gave the Jets a 56 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 34 percent chance of winning the AFC East. With a motivated, more “stable” Edwards the Jets improved their chances of winning the division to 38 percent and chances of making the playoffs to 61 percent.