AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

AFC

The Ravens potentially saved their season with a huge win over the Broncos. They improved their playoff chances by over 20 percentage points not only because they beat a good team, but the defensive performance bodes well for them to play better the rest of the season. The Bengals were on a Bye week but dropped 18 points because the Ravens, Texans and Chargers all won and they are the Bengals’ primary playoff competitors. The Browns and Steelers chances are unchanged after Week 8. Cleveland continues to have zero percent chance.

By beating the Jets twice the Dolphins have slashed the Jets playoff chances by more than a third to just 13 percent. While the Dolphins win hurt the Jets it barely helped Miami who improved by just 2 points. The Dolphins are still just 3-4 and have a fairly tough remaining schedule that includes 2 Patriots games and the Steelers. The Dolphins can soar up the rankings if they shock the Patriots in Week 9 and beat them. Right now everything looks good for New England as they may be the only team in the division likely to finish above .500 and now have a nearly 90 percent chance of winning the division.

The Broncos lost their first game and with victories by possible Wild Card competitors (Baltimore, San Diego, Houston) their playoff chances did drop 8 points, but the Broncos are still at a very strong 87 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Chargers will definitely need to beat Denver in Denver if they hope to close the gap in the division which is currently Denver 73, San Diego 27 percent. Denver has the benefit of having 3 more games against lowly Kansas City and Oakland, but Denver also has to face Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, the Giants, and the Colts this year.

The Colts were challenged in Week 8 but they still won and have nearly a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans improved their chances by 10 points thanks to a road win over Buffalo, but if Houston loses in Week 9 to Indianapolis expect their chances to drop by at least 5 points next week. The Texans are 5-3, but their playoff chances lag behind the 4-3 Chargers and Ravens because their odds of winning their division are so slight and they only have 2 games where they would be heavy favorites on their remaining schedule. They face the Colts twice, the Jaguars on the road, @ Miami, New England and Tennessee, a team that definitely has the talent to play spoiler in Week 11.

NFC

The Giants have gone from having an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs after Week 5 to just a 38 percent chance. Their drop-off is not just due to 3 straight losses, but also the way they lost. They are allowing a ton of points to good passing offenses. The Giants face the Chargers, Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles and Minnesota who are all teams that could put up 30+ against the defense. While the Giants fall, the Cowboys and Eagles both rise. The Eagles jumped over 26 percentage points by crushing the Giants and the Cowboys improved by 6 points with the opportunity to take the division lead by upsetting Philadelphia in Week 9.

Minnesota has a stranglehold on the NFC North and are now playing for the #1 Seed in the NFC. They are forecasted for 13 wins which is 2 more than 3rd place Philadelphia in the NFC, but still 1 behind the Saints. The Packers lost to Favre and the Vikings but still hold the big edge over Chicago for a possible Wild Card (61 to 26 percent) because they are 1-0 against Chicago and the Bears have the tougher remaining schedule. The Packers do not have to face the Vikings again while Chicago has 2 games against the Vikings, while also playing Arizona, Philadelphia, @ San Francisco and Baltimore. With just 2 ‘easy’ wins the rest of the year Chicago will be fortunate to win more than 4 of their remaining games.

The Cardinals appeared to have a top-tier running defense to go along with their prolific passing offense, but the Panthers ran all over them. Luckily for Arizona, the 49ers suffered another tough loss and the Seahawks do not appear to be any better than last season. Arizona’s playoff chances actually were unchanged despite losing a home game where they were 75 percent favorites. The Cardinals only have a 1 game lead and lost to SF at home, but they still have the 80 to 20 percent edge to win the division because they have 4 ‘easy’ wins vs 3 ‘easy’ wins for the 49ers the rest of the season. But, as the Panthers showed in Week 8 there is no such thing as an easy win and the 49ers seem to have a better chance than their 18 percent would indicate.

Carolina improved its playoff chances nearly 10 times by upsetting Arizona, but that unfortunately is an improvement of 0.1 percent up to 1 percent. The NFC South is clearly a two team race between the Saints and Falcons, but the Saints have the clear-cut edge after holding on to the Monday Night win. The Saints matched the Colts with a 99.8 percent chance of making the playoffs and Atlanta now only has a 2 percent chance of winning the division. Atlanta still is right in the thick of the Wild Card race with a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs. They may end up in a race with the NFC East teams for the final Wild Card spot.

AFC

The Bengals bounced back from a damaging Week 6 with an impressive Week 7 win. Their playoff chances improved significantly not only because they won a game that was a “coin-flip” (50-50 chance of winning), but they won in an impressive fashion and the stats from the Chicago game helped their future simulation performance. The Steelers also improved their chances slightly by beating the Vikings. These two wins by division rivals hurt the idle Ravens and the lowly Browns.

The Chargers also got a much needed win and while it will be hard to catch Denver for the AFC West lead (just 15.7 percent), the Chargers do have a favorable forecast for making the playoffs as a Wild Card. The Broncos were on a Bye Week but their playoff chances are still rock solid at over 95 percent. If the team can pull of another win in Week 8 at Baltimore they will really be in great position for home field advantage in at least their first playoff game. The Chiefs and Raiders both have no realistic chance at turning the seasons around.

The Jets and Patriots both saw their playoff chances increase modestly after both winning games in which they were clear-cut favorites. The Bills also won, but their playoff chances did not improve because the rest of their key AFC competitors also won. The fact that the other AFC East teams all won and the Dolphins blew a large lead to the Saints knocked the Dolphins playoff chances by over 20 percentage points.

The AFC South is still clearly in the hands of the Colts that should cruise to a division win by simply beating the teams they are supposed to beat. Even if they lose to the Patriots and Broncos (both games at home) they still have an excellent chance of winning 14+ games and finishing with a 5 game lead in the division. Houston clung to a win in Week 7 but with each week that passes where the Colts win the chances of any other AFC South team making the playoffs goes down.

NFC

The Packers not only won over the lowly Browns, their playoff chances (up over 25 percentage points) rose because of the Bears and Vikings losses. The Vikings only dropped -1.5 points because they lost a game they were expected to lose and they did have some good moments. The Bears, however, were blown out again due to a lack of a running game and Jay Cutler turnovers. These poor statistical performances negatively impact the Bears simulations for Week 8 through 17 and this is the reason why their playoff chances are down dramatically.

The Eagles and Cowboys both capitalized on the Giants struggles. The Eagles chances improved because they beat a division rival. The Cowboys chances improved because they beat a Wild Card competitor, in Atlanta. The Cowboys will likely find themselves in 2nd place to win the division next week behind whoever wins the Eagles-Giants game. This assumes their revived passing offense leads them to another win at home (vs Seattle).

The 49ers actually improved their chances despite losing last week. This is due to the strong performance from Alex Smith vs Houston. If Smith can improve the SF offense they still have a decent 20 percent chance of catching Arizona thanks to their Week 1 win at Arizona. The Cardinals saw their playoff chances improve to over 80 percent thanks to an impressive win over the Giants and a defense that is improving each week.

The Saints are approaching Colts territory with a 99 percent + chance of making the playoffs. Their Week 8 game vs the Falcons obviously will have a huge impact on playoff chances. While the Saints can ‘afford’ to lose a game, if Atlanta, down -12.5 points this week, can run the ball well and beat the Saints their playoff chances will increase by double digits. Currently, the Saints are a heavy 80 percent favorite in their game.

Often times in the postseason, the two best teams don’t make it to the World Series. The vagaries of baseball and short series make it a bit random which teams reach the final round of the playoffs. That doesn’t appear to be the case this season with the Phillies dispatching the Dodgers in five, and the Yankees triumphing over the pesky Angels in six. By virtue of the American League winning the All-Star game, the Yankees will have homefield advantage. Game 1 is on Wednesday.

The above simulation results are based on the following pitching match-ups:

Game 1 – Sabathia vs. Lee

Game 2 – Burnett vs. Hamels

Game 3 – Martinez vs. Pettite

Game 4 – Blanton vs. Gaudin

Game 5 – Lee vs. Sabathia

Game 6 – Burnett vs. Hamels

Game 7 – Pettite vs. Martinez

The World Series schedule probably prevents either team from going with a three-man rotation (as the Yankees did in the ALCS) because it would force the entire rotation to go on three days rest. Thus AccuScore is projected Chad Gaudin and Joe Blanton to the fourth starters for their respective teams. Hideki Matsui is more than likely to sit out in the three games in Philadelphia, and will probably only serve as a pinch-hitter. When the series is at Yankees Stadium the Phillies will probably utilize Ben Francisco or Eric Bruntlett as the DH. Matt Stairs is a possibility when facing a right-hander.

The marquee match-up is a battle between two former Cleveland lefties, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. They are currently projected to face off in Game 1 in New York and Game 5 in Philadelphia. Here the simulations show Sabathia having the clear edge winning at home 65% of the time and 50% on the road. Lee actually has pitched very well against the Yankees in recent outings. Over his past 3 starts against New York he has gone 19 innings allowing just 4 runs with 16 strikeouts. Lee being a southpaw could also play a big factor in neutralizing the short rightfield porch at Yankees Stadium. The Phillies are also familiar with Sabathia because of his time spent in Milwaukee last season. That experience should help them come Game 1.

A.J. Burnett is projected for a big edge against the struggling Cole Hamels in Games 2 and 6 in New York. Burnett is winning 64% of the time in both games. If Hamels were performing as he did last postseason, this spread would be much closer. In three starts this postseason however, Hamels has looked below average allowing 11 earned runs and 6 home runs in just 14.2 innings. Any performances like that against the powerful Yankees lineup will likely end in a loss. Pedro Martinez facing off against Andy Pettite is a great match-up between two playoff tested veterans. While their stuff doesn’t quite compare to their rotation counterparts, their two match-ups could be the most well-pitched of the series. The Game 4 match-up between Blanton and Gaudin slightly favors the Phillies, but will likely just be both pitchers trying to avoid big innings before handing the ball off to the bullpen.

One thing Charlie Manuel will have to ponder is allowing Martinez to pitch Game 2 and shifting Hamels to Game 3. Pedro obviously has plenty of experience pitching in New York and against the Yankees, and won’t be intimidated by the moment in the slightest. Hamels has also pitched better at home than on the road this season. The one thing that would do however is shift Hamels to a potential Game 7, a role the Phillies can’t be comfortable with based on his current form. Mitigating that question would be the ability to throw Lee on short rest, and the availability of the entire staff in a final game.

Another issue for Philadelphia will be in the latter innings in the bullpen. Manuel only has one experienced lefty, Scott Eyre, to combat the likes of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Robinson Cano. He also will have limited ability to turnaround switch-hitters Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, and Jorge Posada as all three hit for more power from the left-side. Rookie Antonio Bastardo could be included on the roster for just this reason, but he faced just one batter in the NLCS allowing a hit and allowed 17 earned runs in just 23.2 regular season innings. Closer Brad Lidge also has to remain a question mark despite his three solid outings against the Dodgers. The Yankees are a much more patient lineup that features much more power than L.A.

New York is not without flaws themselves. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes were expected to be the aces in the hole for the Yankees as two power arms to bridge the middle innings to Mariano Rivera. Things have not worked out that way as the two young right-handers have allowed 16 hits and 4 earned runs in just 8 innings of combined postseason work. The Yankees could also have the same problem as the Phillies against lefties. Philadelphia’s featured hitters (Utley, Howard, Ibañez) are all left-handed. Phil Coke has been solid in his role against lefties allowing just three hits in his last 8.2 innings. Damaso Marte though has been horrendous with a 9.45 ERA this season. Manager Joe Girardi’s penchant for changing pitchers according to left-right match-ups and late inning pinch-running could create unnecessary handicaps for the Yankees as well especially in the National League park without a pitcher’s spot in the lineup.

Both teams have some weaknesses, but clearly are the best each league has to offer. The Yankees though, with their dominant frontline pitching and terrific top-to-bottom lineup has the edge in the series. New York is winning the series 66% of the time making them a very solid favorite to prevent a Philadelphia repeat. If the Phillies can win one of the first two games in New York, it will significantly improve their chances of winning because they feature the largest simulation deficits overall.

AFC

The New England Patriots were the big winners in the AFC this week. Not only did they win while the Jets lost, the way the Patriots won --- a dominating offensive performance --- bodes well for the rest of the Patriots season. New England improved their playoff chances by over 35 percent because their chances of winning the AFC East improved to from 40 percent last week to 78 percent. The Jets not only have lost 3 in a row, they lost their last 2 to division rivals. These losses, especially at home, really take their toll and the Jets now have just an 13 percent chance of making the playoffs. AccuScore expected Sanchez to struggle when the weather got worse given his lack of experience dealing with the elements and his Week 6 performance only validated this assessment. This does not bode well for his ability to play well @New England in Week 11, @ Buffalo in Week 13, vs Atlanta in Week 15 and the Bengals in Week 17. The Dolphins are actually ahead of the Jets now in playoff probability despite being only 2-3.

The Steelers chances improved considerably thanks to the Bengals upset loss and an injury to Antwan Odom. The Bengals still have a solid 47 percent chance at making the playoffs, but a loss to the Texans at home definitely hurt. Even though the Ravens lost a game they were expected to lose their playoff chances still dropped nearly 20 percent because of the way they lost. The Vikings game seemed to confirm that the Ravens pass defense is one of the worst in the league and the run defense is potentially mediocre. No matter how the offense plays the Ravens chances against Pittsburgh, the Colts, Packers and other prolific offenses just went down.

The AFC South appears all but over with the Colts having a 99 percent chance of winning the division. The Colts have a 2 game lead, but more importantly, they are playing at a much higher level than the 3-3 Jaguars who barely edged out the Rams at home, and the Texans, who are good enough to beat anyone and are inconsistent enough to lose to anyone. Houston are the team best equipped to make a move in the AFC because they have not played the Colts yet and still have a theoretical chance of beating the Colts twice. The challenge for Houston is they have a tough schedule with just 2 games in which they are heavily favored.

The Monday Night Football game established the Denver Broncos as the class of the AFC West. Not only did they beat the favored Chargers on the road which significantly boosts their chances of winning the division, it was also the way they won which involved out-playing the Chargers in every way possible – better offense, vastly superior defense, more big special teams play and better coaching. The Broncos are now second to just the Colts in playoff probability at over 97 percent. The Chargers loss helped limit the damage to the Bengals and Ravens chances who are their primary Wild Card competitors.

NFC

The Cardinals are actually the #1 run defense (statistically speaking) and by destroying Seattle on the road they re-established themselves as the favorite in the NFC West. Even though the 49ers have the same record and have a big road win over Arizona the Cardinals are favored to win the division based on quality of play the rest of the year. Most would concede that the Cardinals are the better offense, but right now they are playing well defensively which is why they are performing better in simulations than the 49ers. Seattle was hoping that a healthy Matt Hasselbeck would carry their team to the post-season, but after the debacle on Sunday and the season ending injury to Lofa Totupa the Seahawks only have a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Saints dominated the Giants and statistically speaking, this team not only has no flaws, they arguably are strong in every area of the game. The passing game gets the press but this team runs well and is playing great defense. The Saints still ‘only’ have an 85 percent chance of winning the division because the Falcons are staying close. Atlanta improved their playoff chances by +7 percent because by beating Chicago they have the edge over a potential Wild Card competitor. Amazingly, the Panthers and Tampa Bay have less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs combined.

There was only minimal movement in the NFC North. Minnesota won an exciting game over Baltimore but it was a game they were expected to win and their chances improved just 3.5 percent. The Bears only dropped 3 percent because they lost a game they were expected to lose. The Packers’ chances changed the most improving +10 percent because they beat Detroit and key Wild Card competitors, Chicago and Philadelphia lost.

The Eagles stunning loss to the Raiders dropped their chances 30 percent. When you are looking to win 11 games and you lose a game in which you are an 80 percent+ favorite, it takes a major toll on playoff chances. The Eagles will not only need to avoid any future upset losses, but they will also likely need to sweep the Cowboys to secure a Wild Card spot. The idle Cowboys improved their chances by 12 percent because of the 3 other NFC East teams all losing. The Giants may have been humbled in New Orleans, but their loss only hurt them by 7 percent because they were not expected to upset the Saints. The Giants still have a solid 61 percent chance to win the NFC East and a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Dodgers and Phillies will reprise their 2008 series and meet in this year’s National League Championship Series. This is the fifth time Los Angeles and Philadelphia have played for the pennant. Starting pitching, as in the opening round, will once again take center stage as both teams have some slight questions in their rotations.

The baseline simulation assumes these pitching match-ups:

Game 1 – Wolf vs. Hamels

Game 2 – Kershaw vs. Martinez

Game 3 – Lee vs. Padilla

Game 4 – Happ vs. Billingsley

Game 5 – Hamels vs. Wolf

Game 6 – Kershaw vs. Martinez

Game 7 – Padilla vs. Lee

Because Cliff Lee started against the Rockies on Monday, he is projected to be the Game 3 and Game 7 starter in this series. He could pitch in Game 2, but it would be on short rest. Joe Blanton was apparently not in the final mix to start for the Phillies in the NLDS so he is projected solely as a relief pitcher here. The Dodgers meanwhile could choose to flip-flop Kershaw and Wolf as they were prepared to do if their NLDS series was extended. They will also have the same questions about Chad Billingsley to deal with.

Overall, the Phillies have a small 51% edge in the series mostly due to their starting pitching. Hamels and Lee will be able to start at least 4 of the 7 games. Hamels could also start Game 4 on short rest. Whenever they pitch, Lee and Hamels will give the Phillies the edge. The pair are terrific, but the Dodgers already showed against the Cardinals that they are perfectly capable of beating Cy Young caliber starters.

The pivotal games appear to be Game 3 and Game 5 in Philadelphia. Vicente Padilla is likely to oppose Cliff Lee which looks like a big mismatch on paper. Padilla though, if he can continue at the level he showed against St. Louis could provide a big boost to the Dodgers chances. If he can match Lee and hand the ball off to the bullpen for a possible win it would swing the series because the game has the largest simulation spread of the seven games. Game 5 is pivotal because it is projected as a complete coin-flip between Wolf and Hamels in Philadelphia which each team winning 50% of the time.

L.A.’s bullpen will once again have a big advantage in this series. With Hong-Chih Kuo and Ronald Belisario setting up George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers have no questions about who will be getting the finals outs of games. The Phillies will be playing match-ups and likely utilizing starters on their off-days as relievers. Brad Lidge finished Monday’s game against Colorado, but not before Scott Eyre got 2 outs to start the inning. Lidge has had arguably the worst season of any closer in baseball history. If he struggles, it would create a negative domino effect through the Phillies’ staff. A more innovative solution would be to use either Happ, Blanton, or even Martinez in the end game.

Both lineups are fairly balanced receiving contributions from players up and down the lineup. The big hitter for the Phillies, Ryan Howard, has a severe left-right split that Joe Torre should exploit every time possible late in games with either Kuo or Sherrill. Raul Ibañez has also shown a platoon split throughout his career (although not this season so far). The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is also susceptible to left-handed pitching, but he will be sandwiched by right-handed power hitters (Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez).

A key to this series could be the health (or lack thereof) of Dodger pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. The right-hander has performed very well since suffering a concussion on August 15^th in Arizona. In five September starts he posted a 2.79 ERA with 25 strikeouts and just 7 walks in 29 innings.

Because of Padilla’s performance down the stretch and in the NLDS, AccuScore projects him to stay in the rotation. This scenario shows what would happen if Billingsley were to be replaced by Kuroda in Game 4. Kuroda would actually make the Dodgers a favorite against J.A. Happ, which is doubly significant because it would be on the road in Philadelphia. This shift would also make push the Dodgers from a slight underdog in this series to a slight favorite. The numbers show that the two teams are fairly evenly matched so every little bit takes on even greater importance.

The Angels have decided to forgo the opportunity to pitch ace John Lackey potentially three times in this series, and utilize two left-handers in a four man rotation. The projected Angels rotation is Lackey in Game 1 followed by Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, and then Scott Kazmir. This is reflected in the new series projection below:

The Yankees have given indications that they plan on using a three-man rotation with CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettite. That would allow them to use ace Sabathia three times including a potential Game 7. This is the most likely scenario unless something were to happen such as injury, or an unusually high pitch count for Sabathia in Game 1.

In my first preview, the three man rotation had given the Yankees a boost. New York was projected to win the series 62% of the time, but that had projected Weaver in Game 2 followed by Kazmir and Saunders at home. The actual rotation has pushed Kazmir to Game 4 with Saunders a lefthander pitching on the road.

With the rotation order settled (and with Ervin Santana in the pen) the Angels have improved their outlook slightly by the following percentages:

Even with the Yankees going with only their three best starters*, it appears Mike Scioscia’s rotation decisions are the right ones. Saunders projects to do just as well as Jered Weaver in Game 2. Being a lefty, he may be able to limit the effects of the new Yankee Stadium’s short right-field dimensions. Saunder’s has also had success in the past in old Yankee Stadium. Both were mentioned by Scioscia as reasons for giving Saunders the start on the road. Weaver improves the outlook against Pettite by 4%. Kazmir also improves the Game 4 match-up for the Angels by 4%. This is possibly because Kazmir has pitched much better in Angel Stadium in his career than in New York. He has made four starts in each city and posted a significantly lower ERA (3.16) in Anaheim than in New York (5.04 in the old Stadium).

*There is the possibility of rain in New York. In the event of a postponement, the Yankees would likely use four starters meaning either Chad Gaudin or Joba Chamberlain would start a game in Anaheim.

Interestingly, if the Angels themselves decided to go with a three-man rotation, it would not help their chances significantly if at all.

Even with their ace, Lackey, pitching against Sabathia in Games 1, 4, and 7, the Angels have the same overall winning percentage (43%). The difference appears to be the performance of Kazmir which is offsetting gains made by Lackey and Weaver. Kazmir though has performed better since moving over to Anaheim and being reunited with his former pitching coach Mike Butcher. If his late season improvements are real and a result of some reported slight mechanical tweaks, he actually should be projected to do better than his overall numbers would indicate.

The argument for excluding Saunders would be the tradeoff of another start by the team’s best pitcher who has a proven track record of excellence in the postseason. Saunders could also be used as a lefty out of the pen in multiple games to combat the likes of Cano, Damon and Matsui. The Angels currently lacks a left-handed middle reliever aside from closer Brian Fuentes. Adding a lefty in the bullpen, and replacing your fourth starter with your clear ace is a tradeoff I would make without thinking. Mike Scioscia doesn’t feel the same. Time will tell if his decision will payoff.