AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

AFC

The Denver Broncos have just a 10 percent chance of catching the Chargers to win the AFC West, but they do have a 76 percent of making the playoffs (66 percent as Wild Card). With 2 ‘easy’ games on their remaining schedule (Oakland and Kansas City) the Broncos have a very good shot at winning 10 games which should be enough to make the playoffs. The real race in the AFC is for the final playoff spot with four teams at 7-6. These teams owe the Steelers who lost to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. Based on their winning percentage the Steelers had a 0.6 percent chance of ‘accomplishing’ this miraculous feat.

Baltimore has a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs, Miami 32 percent, the Jets 22 percent, and Jacksonville 22 percent. These odds are basically correlated to their chances of winning the rest of their games. The reason why Baltimore has such an advantage is their remaining opponents are all under .500 while the other 7-6 teams all have at least 2 winning teams on their schedule.

The reason why Miami, at a 32 percent chance of making the playoffs, is significantly better than the Jets at 22 percent and not far behind Baltimore’s despite having just a 10 percent chance of winning out, is Miami has a much better chance of winning their division. Miami has a 10 percent chance of winning the AFC East while Baltimore has just less than a 4 percent chance of winning the AFC North. Miami also has the 2-0 edge head-to-head against the Jets.

The Jets chances are better than expected because they could benefit from teams resting starters. While the Colts are not likely to rest players in Week 15, they could definitely start resting players in Week 16 when they play the Jets. The Jets have just a 20 percent chance of beating the Colts if the Colts play their starters, but depending on what Indianapolis does the Jets could have a 50-50 shot in a game they had no business winning. If the Bengals have nothing to play for in Week 17 they could rest key starters vs the Jets in Week 17. The Jets only have an 22 percent chance if their opponents do not rest in Week 16 and 17, but if they rest the Jets have a nearly 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Jacksonville is the team that has the lowest chance of making the playoffs of the 7-6 teams because they will play a Colts team that says it is not going to rest in Week 15. They then play at New England and the Patriots are clinging to a 1 game lead in their division so they will be playing at their best. Even the Week 17 game at Cleveland could be challenging as the Browns have put up a solid efforts even though they are just 2-11.

NFC

The Eagles chances of making the playoffs jumped by over 17 percent thanks to beating the Giants and having the Cowboys lose. The Eagles have a 76 percent chance of winning the division, which is up from 43 percent a week ago. Even though Dallas is panicking after starting the month 0-2, they still have the best chance of getting the final Wild Card spot with a 58 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Giants are making the playoffs 32 percent of the time which is not as far behind Dallas as you might think given they are 1 game behind the Cowboys.

The final Wild Card spot could come down to what the Minnesota Vikings do. It is very likely that Minnesota will be locked into a #2 playoff seed and will rest in Week 17 – a home game vs the Giants. The Vikings are currently 74 percent favorites in this game, but if they rest key offensive and defensive starters and the Giants have a 50 percent chance of winning. In this scenario, the Giants have a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs just 9 points behind the Cowboys at 53 percent.

We are virtually conceding the other Wild Card spot to Green Bay who has nearly a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs. They have a 1 game lead on the Cowboys and beat Dallas head-to-head. They also have one ‘easy’ game vs the Seahawks in Week 16 and it is likely the Cardinals could be resting key starters in Week 17 when Green Bay goes to Arizona. Green Bay also has a decent chance of beating Pittsburgh given their struggles. The Packers have a 94 percent chance of winning 10 or more games this season while Dallas has just a 44 percent chance and the Giants a 10 percent chance.

The 49ers still have a measurable 16 percent chance of making the playoffs after sweeping the Cardinals. The Cardinals still have a 2 game lead and with games vs the Lions and Rams they are a virtual lock to win 2 of their final 3 which would keep them at least 1 game ahead of the 49ers, even if San Francisco wins out.

AFC

The AFC is filled with disappointing teams and two are from the NFC North – Pittsburgh and Baltimore. By losing at home to the Raiders as the heaviest favorite of the week the Steelers saw their playoff chances drop over 23 percentage points from over 62 to just 39 percent. The Steelers are still favored in their remaining 4 games and as the AFC Wild Card team with the best chance of winning their final 4 games the Steelers still have the best chance of getting the 6th playoff spot. Baltimore lost at Green Bay and while this loss was not unexpected it did drop their chances below 30 percent. The Steelers-Ravens Week 16 game is shaping up to be THE crucial match-up of the season. Cincinnati is close to being a lock to win the division and make the playoffs at over 98 percent.

Jacksonville currently has the 6th playoff spot, but AccuScore does not give them a great chance of holding on to that spot because they have 2 tough games (Colts at home, @ New England) and they have another close Week 14 against Miami. The Jags are only averaging 1.7 wins in their remaining 4 and if they finish 1-3 they will likely not hold on to the playoff spot. Tennessee’s run to the playoffs is likely over after their loss to the Colts and now they only have a 9 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans are virtually done at just 2 percent.

The Broncos are solidifying their #5 spot with an 18 percentage point increase. They still have a 25 percent chance of catching the Chargers but with road games vs the Colts and Eagles it will be tough for them to go better than 2-2 the rest of the way. San Diego is also headed for a likely 2-2 finish (they are averaging 2.5 wins in their final 4) and another AFC West win.

The Patriots only have a 1 game lead over Miami and the Jets, but they still are overwhelming 89 percent favorites to win the division. They are heavily favored in their next 3 games (Carolina at home, @ Buffalo, Jaguars at home) and have a high chance of finishing 3-1. The Jets have tough games vs the Colts and Bengals (assuming they both are playing their starters) and Atlanta could be tough if Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are back. A 2-2 record for the Jets is the most likely scenario. The Dolphins also look to finish 2-2, but have a better chance of winning the division because they beat the Jets twice.

NFC

The Packers are hot and their playoff chances are now an extremely solid 86 percent with virtually all of that coming as the Wild Card. The Vikings may be a little concerned over how they got dominated by Arizona, but they are not concerned about holding on to a playoff spot with a 99.9 percent chance of holding on. The Bears are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they might as well be with less than 1 percent chance.

The Giants re-established themselves as a potential division winner and beating the Cowboys improved their chances of making the playoffs to 51 percent. They are still 3rd in the NFC East so obviously the winner of the Eagles-Giants game will see a major boost in their playoff chances. Both of these teams will also obviously benefit from the Cowboys losing the Chargers. AccuScore gives San Diego a high 44 percent chance of upsetting Dallas. Dallas then has games at New Orleans, @ Washington and home vs the Eagles. The Cowboys still have the best chance of winning the division by virtue of having a 1 game lead on the Giants and by beating the Eagles in their earlier match-up, but they have the toughest schedule. The Giants may be third in the division but they have the easiest remaining schedule with a Week 16 vs Carolina at home and a Week 17 at Minnesota which could be a game where the Vikings rest their starters at least for the second half.

The Saints have clinched the NFC South and have a 35 percent chance of finishing 16-0. With the Falcons at 6-6 and their two best players injured their chances are now just 3.8 percent. Tampa Bay and Carolina are also virtually, if not definitely, eliminated from the playoff picture. The NFC West has also become a one team race with Arizona having a 99.4 percent chance of winning the division. With games vs the Lions and Rams they are virtually assured of at least a 2-2 record which is good enough to keep the division lead regardless of whether they lose to the 49ers.

AFC

The Broncos not only got a big, upset win over the Giants, but the fashion in which they won (great defense, good running the ball) bodes well for their being a Wild Card. With 2 games vs the Chiefs and one vs Oakland the Broncos should be able to finish 3-2 even if they lose to the Colts and Eagles. The problem for Denver is they lost to both Baltimore and Pittsburgh and if there were a 3 way tie for the 2 Wild Card spots, Denver could be in trouble. The Chargers only have a 1 game lead in the AFC West but they have an 80 to 20 percent edge over Denver for the AFC West title. Currently, the Chargers are 75 percent favorites vs the Bengals at home in Week 15. If the Chargers are upset then it will definitely open the door for the Broncos.

The Ravens got a huge win over the Steelers and saw their playoff chances improve nearly 18 percentage points. Even though they are tied with Pittsburgh and are 1-0 they still lag behind the Steelers in overall playoff chances (44 for Baltimore, 63 for Pittsburgh). Why the disparity? The Steelers are moderate to heavy favorites in the rest of their games while Baltimore has 2 tough road games (@ GB, @ PIT) where they are underdogs. If Baltimore does not upset Green Bay on Monday Night then they will definitely need to beat Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh in Week 16. Cincinnati has a huge lead in the division now that they have swept all their division games.

The Patriots were blown out on Monday Night, but they still have a 2 game lead in the division and as heavy favorites in their remaining games the team has a 93 percent chance of winning the division and a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins’ chances declined over 17 percentage points and at 5-6 they need to win the rest of their games. If they do they will have to beat the Jaguars, Titans, Texans and Steelers who are all key Wild Card competitors. The Jets saw a slight boost to their playoff chances (+3 points). One reason why their playoff chances are very low is they are heavy underdogs at Indianapolis in Week 16. If the Colts are 14-0 it is not inconceivable that they start resting key starters which could help the Jets get an upset win.

Every AFC South team still has at least a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs. After Week 13, two of the teams will likely be out of the playoff picture. The loser of the Jaguars-Texans game and the Titans if they lose to the Colts will see their chances plummet. Tennessee has won 5 in a row and they are moderate to heavy favorites in all their remaining games except for the Colts game in Week 13. AccuScore only gives the Titans a 5 percent chance of finishing with 10 straight wins.

NFC

The Packers saw a nice 10.6 percentage point improvement thanks to their easy win over Detroit, but more importantly, the upset loss by the Giants. Besides winning at least 3 of their last 5 the Packers need Kurt Warner to return to good health. If Warner is healthy and the Cardinals beat the 49ers in Week 14 they should be able to lock up the NFC West by Week 16 and rest starters in Week 17 when the Packers play them in Arizona. Green Bay also needs Dallas to all but eliminate the Giants from the playoffs in Week 13. The Vikings are winning the division 99.9 percent of the time, but have less than a 20 percent chance of catching the Saints for the #1 Seed in the NFC.

The 49ers more than doubled their chances to 15 percent in Week 12. The 49ers season comes down to the next 2 weeks. A loss to the Seahawks would all but eliminate them, but if they beat Seattle, they have a legit chance of catching the Cardinals for the NFC West lead. Beating Arizona in Week 14 would give the 49ers a sweep and with relatively easy Week 16 and 17 games the 49ers have a strong chance of catching Arizona and getting the tie-breaker for the division, if they win their next 2 games.

The Saints already had a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs so their huge Monday Night win did not have a statistical impact on their playoff chances. The quality of their play did improve their already high winning percentage going forward and they should be able to keep ahead of Minnesota for the top spot. The Falcons are suffering key injuries at the worst possible time of the season. With key Wild Card competitor, Philadelphia, in town and Atlanta likely playing without both Kurt Warner and Michael Turner, the Falcons are winning just 40 percent of Week 13 game simulations. Atlanta actually saw their playoff chances drop by 2.3 percentage points despite their win over Tampa Bay because of the negative impact of injuries on future performance.

The Cowboys at Giants is obviously a huge game. If Dallas wins they not only get a huge statistical edge for the division win, but they will exorcize some demons by winning a big game in December. The Eagles are favored in 3 of their last 5 games and if they win the games they are ‘supposed’ to win they should be safe for a Wild Card spot. They have nearly a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs thanks to a favorable remaining schedule. The Giants saw their chances drop to under 40 percent as they were favored to beat the Broncos, but lost. Not only did they lose, but their lack of offense and increasingly soft defense does not indicate this team is ready to make a big run.

AFC

The AFC North playoff contenders --- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore --- all lost in tough fashion and this division gave a gift to other AFC Playoff contenders. The Bengals and Steelers saw their playoff chances drop 7 and 10 percentage points, respectively. The Steelers lost the most because they suffered the biggest upset of the week. The Ravens may have only dropped 0.7 percent, but they were the big losers in the week because a win over the Colts combined with the Bengals and Steelers losses would have put them in excellent Wild Card position. Now they have to minimally beat the Steelers twice to have any chance.

The Jaguars are not perceived to be a serious playoff threat because of some disastrous losses this year. That said, they are still a solid 6-4 and with the AFC North failures they saw their playoff chances jump the most this week in the AFC going up 14 percentage points. The Jaguars have 3 remaining home games and 1 ‘easy’ road game at Cleveland. They will likely need to beat the Texans, Dolphins and Colt at home in Week 13, 14 and 15 to make the playoffs. The Texans suffered a very costly loss to the Titans at home. The loss slashed their playoff chances from 19 to a shade under 11 percent. Finally, the Titans are still given just a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs they will likely need to win their remaining games (10 overall) to even have a chance. With road games vs the Colts and tough home games vs the Dolphins and Chargers it will be hard to go 6-0 the rest of the season.

Miami was AccuScore’s pick for second in the AFC East in the pre-season and they showed that they can still win without Ronnie Brown last week. A solid road win that verified they are a solid running and defensive team has helped them improve to a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins are projected to finish 3-3 the rest of the season which would not be good enough. To make the playoffs they will need to not only win the games in which they are favored, but they also need to beat the two of these three matchups (Jaguars in Jacksonville, Houston at home, and the Steelers at home).

While the Chargers are now heavy 87 percent favorites to win the AFC West by beating the Broncos in Denver so convincingly, the Broncos still have a solid 36.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. This is down 14 percentage points from a week ago, but it is still good enough for 6^th in the AFC. If the Broncos take care of business in their ‘easy’ division games (@KC, OAK, home vs KC) they may only need to win one of their games vs the Giants, Colts, and Eagles to make the playoffs. The key is can they keep it together and re-focus in time to get an upset win at home vs the Giants in Week 12.

NFC

The Giants won in OT over the Falcons and this win was huge. It improved their playoff chances by over 15 percentage points because they beat a primary Wild Card competitor. The Eagles also saw solid improvement this week because they won on the road. Even though they were favored they were not heavy favorites and winning close games is the difference between a 9-7 non-playoff team and a 10 win playoff team. The Cowboys improved by 6 percentage points even though they were unimpressive in their win because potential Wild Card threats (Atlanta, San Francisco, Carolina, and Chicago) all lost.

The Cardinals were once again the only NFC West team to win this week and they now have a commanding 3 game lead in the division. It looks like the Week 1 home loss to San Francisco will not cost them anything even if they lose the re-match as well. With over a 97 percent chance of hanging on to the division lead the Cardinals have over a 98 percent chance. It will be important that Kurt Warner is healthy as their chances per game drop between 15 and 20 percentage points depending on if Leinart or Warner is starting.

The Packers have put together a few quality wins but their playoff chances were relatively unchanged this week because the Giants beat Atlanta and the Eagles beat Chicago. The 3 primary Wild Card contender are the 2 NFC East teams and the Packers. Even though the Packers have the same record as the Giants and Eagles their remaining schedule is tougher with road games @ Chicago, @ Pittsburgh and home vs Baltimore. The Packer need to hope the Cardinals have nothing to play for in Week 17. The Packers are winning 42 percent of Week 17 simulations if Arizona is playing hard, but if Arizona rests starters the Packers are a 60 percent+ favorite and their playoff chances match the Eagles and Giants.

In the NFC South the Saints have run away with the division and even though they have not mathematically clinched a playoff spot, they are making the playoffs in every single one of the 10,000 season simulations. Atlanta saw their chances drop by a full 18 percentage points. The Falcons need to go at least 5-1 to have a legit shot at the playoffs and with tough games vs the Eagles, Saints, and Jets on their schedule it will be tough to only lose once. The Falcons chances will significantly improve in Week 13 if they beat the Eagles at home.

AFC

The Bengals are at the top of this list for the second straight week with their impressive defensive performance against the Steelers. Cincinnati saw its playoff chances increase by over 15 percentage points and their chances of winning the division sky-rocket to 70 percent, up from 18 percent a week ago. The Steelers lost the Bengals but still have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs. Besides two games vs Baltimore, the Steelers will be heavy favorites in their remaining games. The Ravens got a slight bump over a hapless Browns team but they are now a distant 3^rd in the NFC North.

The San Diego Chargers saw their chances of winning the division jump from 43 to 68 percent this week. The Broncos definitely need Kyle Orton to play in Week 11 since AccuScore only gives a Chris Simms led Broncos a 37 percent chance of beating San Diego. The winner of this game will likely go on to take the AFC West. Denver may have seen their playoff chances drop by over 25 percentage points with a loss to lowly Washington, but they still have the 6^th best chance of making the playoffs which would put them well in line for a Wild Card.

The Patriots lost to the Colts but they only saw their playoff chances drop by 4 points because the Jets lost again. Miami won, but their chances improved to by just 4.5 percentage points because they are still well behind New England in the division and the other AFC Wild Card competitors. The Jets have a paltry 3 percent chance of making the playoffs. They only have 3 ‘winnable’ games on the rest of the schedule the way they are playing. Buffalo has less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Colts have a 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs with their win over the Patriots. The Jaguars saw their chances jump by nearly 20 points but they did not gain ground on the Colts, they mostly took away the playoff chances of the Jets. Unfortunately for the Texans they have to play a 3-6 Titans team that is playing well enough to beat anybody. While Tennessee has just a 1 percent chance of miraculously making a playoff run they are definitely good enough to spoil the rest of the division’s chances.

NFC

The Green Bay Packers got a huge win over a good team and saw their chances jump 20 points. They were helped by the Bears awful loss (down to just a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs) and the Falcons loss. The Vikings are virtually locks for the division and the playoffs at a 99 percent chance of winning the division. Even if Chicago can beat Minnesota twice they could still be 1 or 2 games behind the Vikings and all they might do is open the door for Green Bay to catch the Vikings.

The Giants saw their chances improve 8 points on a Bye Week thanks to losses by the Cowboys and Eagles. Dallas is still in position to win the NFC East with a 47 percent chance, compared to 32 percent for the Eagles. The Giants may be 3^rd in the NFC East but they still have a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs which is virtually tied with Atlanta for the final playoff spot. The Giants are at home against Atlanta who will likely be without Michael Turner. The Giants season can turn around with a big win this week.

Atlanta saw their playoff chances drop over 20 points because they lost to a division rival and the injury to Michael Turner could cost them a win. Even if Turner plays, he will be playing hurt. Carolina is playing much better and are just 1 game behind the Packers, Falcons, Eagles and Giants in win-loss record. The reason why AccuScore has the Panthers well behind these teams in playoff probability is they already lost to potential Wild Card competitors, the Eagles and Cowboys, and face the Giants on the road in Week 16. The Panthers also have tough games vs the Vikings, Saints and Patriots remaining on their schedule making it unlikely they win more than 3 of their final 7.

The Cardinals should take the AFC West because they have a 2 game lead in the division and they may finally have a good running back in rookie Beanie Wells. If Wells continues to play well the Cardinals would be over 57% favorites in their re-match with the 49ers which would be the key win they need to take the division. The 49ers are only favored in 4 of their remaining games and if they finished the season with 8 wins the Cardinals need just 3 more wins to take the division.

AFC

The Bengals impressive beat down of Baltimore helped them increase their chances by more than 30 percentage points while costing the Ravens over 30 percentage points. Just as important as the out-come of the game was the way the game played out. Cincinnati showed they are balanced team with no obvious flaws when they are playing well. The Ravens were hurt not just by the loss, but by the San Diego upset win. The Steelers lost to the Bengals earlier this season, but AccuScore favors them to ultimately win the division (79 percent).

Heading into their huge match-up with the Patriots the Colts have a 99.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans played well and even though they lost to a division rival their playoff chances only dipped 4 points because the Ravens lost and they are one of their main Wild Card competitors. The Texans are still significantly behind the Chargers and Bengals for the Wild Card spots with just a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs. It hurts the Texans that the Titans are showing signs of life and even though Tennessee will not make a run for the playoffs they definitely could beat plenty of teams, including a re-match with Houston.

The Patriots may have lost early to the Jets, but it looks like they will have at least a 3 game lead in the division by the end of the season and that loss will not impact their chances of winning the division which are currently over 90 percent. Currently, the Patriots are projected for 11 wins which is 3 fewer than the Colts at 14 wins. Obviously, if New England upsets the Colts their chances of catching the Colts improve significantly. The Dolphins and Jets are both averaging just under 8 wins for the season and both have just a 12-14 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Broncos are clinging to a slight lead in the division winning the AFC West 56.9 percent of the time to San Diego’s 43.1 percent. If San Diego beats Denver in Denver then they will take command. The Chargers saw their chances jump nearly 11 points thanks to an upset win over the Giants. It also helped that Baltimore lost. San Diego has a game lead on them in the Wild Card standings which is important given their head-to-head loss to the Ravens.

NFC

The Cowboys are playing to their full potential and are now in control of the NFC East with a 56 percent chance of winning the division. The Eagles lost at home and their playoff chances dropped 11 percentage points, but it is still strong at 59 percent thanks to the Giants continued slide. The Giants now just have a 36 percent chance of making the playoffs which is not only 3rd in their division, but is behind the Falcons and Packers.

Somehow the Packers still have a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs despite blowing a double digit second half lead to Tampa Bay. With the 49ers, Giants, and Bears all playing poorly Green Bay can still win 9 games and make the playoffs. Packers fans should hope the Cardinals continue to roll because they play at Arizona in Week 17. If Arizona’s playoff position is determined by then the Packers could get to play a huge game against a team resting its starters. The Bears defense is getting picked apart by good QBs which is why the Packers are currently favored in their Week 14 re-match. This current edge is why Green Bay has such a substantial lead over Chicago in the playoff race. Minnesota has a 98 percent chance of winning the NFC North. They improved by +4 points despite being on a Bye because of the poor performances by the rest of the division.

The Cardinals quickly recovered from a bad home loss to Carolina with an impressive road win in Chicago. This win combined with the 49ers upset loss to Tennessee helped the Cardinals solidify their chances of repeating as NFC West champs to nearly 94 percent. The Seahawks and 49ers are both just 3-5 and both teams have under a 5 percent chance of catching Arizona. With just a one tenth of one percent chance of winning the division the Rams are close to mathematical elimination.

The undefeated Saints have a 97 percent chance of winning the NFC South. Atlanta only has a 3 percent chance of catching New Orleans, but they do have a very solid 67 percent chance of being a Wild Card team. Atlanta has the 5th best chance of making the playoffs in the NFC despite having just a 3 percent chance of winning the division. The final playoff spot could come down to the Week 11 Atlanta @ New York game. If the Falcons can upset the Giants they would get the big edge over a primary competitor for the final playoff spot.