AccuScore simulates every game 10,000 times one play at a time to generate a forecasted winning percentage and a full range of projected player statistics. We also can use our simulation technology to evaluate the impact of different trade scenarios. The analysis below shows how a trade of Amare Stoudemire for the Spurs’ Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson would impact both teams this season.

The San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns are currently #6 and #8 in the Western Conference playoff standings. Both teams are disappointed in their current position. The Spurs were hoping the acquisition of Richard Jefferson combined with a healthy Manu Ginobili would put them in position to win the Southwest and compete with the Lakers as Western Conference champs. They are currently 4 games behind Dallas and 8 games behind the Lakers. The Suns started the season surprisingly well but they have won just 3 of their last 10 and it is very unlikely that this current roster will be able to rise above the #6 spot in the West. More importantly, they are not willing to re-sign Amare Stoudemire in the off-season for a max deal.

BASELINE WESTERN CONFERENCE SEASON FOREAST

As of January 27, AccuScore projects the Spurs to finish 4th in the West with their current roster and Phoenix 6th. This is based on 10,000 season simulations and the Spurs averaged 47.7 wins and made the playoffs 81.2% of the time. The Suns averaged 46.2 wins and made the playoffs 74.2% of the time. While this forecast is fairly positive given their current standings, the difference between the #4 Spurs and the #9 Thunder is just 3.3 projected wins while the difference between the Spurs #4 and the Nuggets #3 is a full 4.4 wins. In other words, San Antonio is closer to slipping out of the playoffs than they are of catching the Nuggets.

Stoudemire FOR GINOBILI AND JEFFERSON

When the Spurs acquired Richard Jefferson AccuScore reported that the acquisition would only help San Antonio if Jefferson was capable of rebounding as well as he did early in his career with the Nets. He is averaging a paltry 3.6 rebounds in nearly 31 minutes which is a career low. With Jefferson not being a valuable rebounder or defensive force he really does not help the Spurs. He is an OK three point shooter, a poor free throw shooter (just 70% this year) and just not that valuable a player. When Ginobili is playing well he looks like a Top 15 player, but his overall statistics are not those of a superstar player. He is currently shooting under 40% from the field and just 36% from the three point line.

While Amare Stoudemire is not a great defender or a great rebounder capable of anchoring a defense, he would be a great complimentary defender and rebounder playing alongside Tim Duncan. Stoudemire is a dominant offensive player who should still put up big stats, even if Steve Nash is not his PG.

Stoudemire’s average impact is +1.2 more wins over the remaining 39 games which translates to a +3.1% difference per game. Come playoff time, improving your chances by +3.1% in a close game can make a significant impact. A +3.1% impact translates to roughly +1 points in the Spurs’ average margin of victory.

Even if acquiring Stoudemire does not immediately vault the Spurs into the upper echelon of the league, his presence definitely improves the Spurs in 2010. Stoudemire is younger than Ginobili and Jefferson, and he is a star player whom the Spurs can continue to build around as Tim Duncan gets older. The Suns’ forecast is down just 0.7 wins. Even though the team would have no low post scorer it appears that Ginobili and Jefferson could fit in with the up-tempo perimeter-oriented Suns offense, and help keep them competitive.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations won 71 percent of the time (182-74 regular season, 6-4 in playoffs) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked #1 amongst ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of spreads and totals check out AccuScore's Winner's Edge which has gone an impressive 14-5, 73.7% in the playoffs.

COLTS FAVORED

The Colts are the simulation favorite winning 54 percent of the time. Both QBs are posting impressive simulation stat lines, but Peyton Manning has the slight edge with an overall passer rating of 99 vs 94 for Brees. Brees is completing a higher percentage of his passes (69 vs 66 percent), but Manning is projected for more yards (292 vs 250) and has a 63 percent chance of passing for 2+ TDs vs 49 percent for Brees.

WHICH SAINTS PASS DEFENSE WILL SHOW UP?

The key for the Saints to upset the Colts is their pass defense playing like they did in the first 12 weeks of the regular season and not like they have recently. AccuScore uses a proprietary power rating formula that ranks the best team at 100% and the worst at 0%. After Week 12 when the Saints destroyed the Patriots the team had a pass defensive power rating of 90%. However, since Week 13 on the Saints pass defense is in the bottom 3rd in the league at 31%. If the Saints pass defense is like the Week 1-12 unit and intercept Manning at least once then the Saints actually have a 57 percent chance of winning.

COLTS RUN DEFENSE IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE STATS INDICATE

The Colts pass rush is one of the best units in the league and even if they do not sack Drew Brees a lot, they can definitely pressure harass him like the Vikings did. The defensive key for the Colts is for the run defense to continue playing well. Overall the Colts run defensive power rating is just 56% - slightly above average. However, if you disregard their Week 16 and 17 data when they rested starters, the Colts run defense power rating is a high 89 percent. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combine for under 100 rushing yards the Saints are heavy 22 percent underdogs because without an effective running game even Drew Brees will struggle when he is facing 3rd and long too many times.

COLTS ARE FAVORED IN A SHOOTOUT THANKS TO TURNOVER MARGIN

If this game ends up as a shootout with both QBs playing great (300+ yards, 2+ TDs) the Colts are favored to come out on top with a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts have the edge because they are committing fewer turnovers. There is a 52 percent chance the Saints commit 2 or more turnovers vs 41 percent for the Colts. If the Colts do commit 2 or more turnovers the Saints have the 61 percent edge, but if they commit under 2 turnovers the Colts are the 54 percent favorite.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations has gone on to win 71 percent of the time (182-74) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked #1 amongst ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of point spreads, totals and prop bets consider becoming a Winner's Edge subscriber (details here). AccuScore went a perfect 8-0 in the opening round of the playoffs.

AFC

The Colts may have home field advantage but the Chargers have the best chance of coming out of the AFC at 17 percent because the Chargers have a nearly 70 percent chance of beating the Jets next week while the Colts have ‘just’ a 57 percent chance of beating Baltimore. Both the Ravens and Jets were extremely impressive in their opening round upset victories and while they are simulation underdogs this week they are both expected to keep their games competitive and not lose by more than a touchdown, if not win the game out-right.

The keys to victory in both games are very similar. The Chargers need to be able to pass the ball despite Darrelle Revis potentially taking out #1 WR Vincent Jackson and the Chargers run defense, which has been below average most of the season, needs to keep the Jets RBs from having 150+ rushing yards.

The Colts passing game needs to be effective despite the long lay-off and they need to limit turnovers, something Tom Brady struggled with vs this Ravens defense. The Colts sub-par run defense also needs to make sure that Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain to not bust out for another 200+ rushing yard performance.

NFC

The Saints have the best chance of winning the NFC Championship because they have a 71 percent chance of beating Arizona this week. Arizona was spectacular offensively vs the Packers, but their defense was not, to say the least. The game is in New Orleans and it is unlikely that the Cardinals defense can hold the Saints to under 33 points. The Saints defense ranked 3^rd in the league in interceptions and this is a key advantage for this game. If Kurt Warner does not throw any interceptions and overall the Cardinals are +2 in turnovers then they can upset New Orleans.

The Cowboys are arguably playing the best football in the league. With Felix Jones playing so well the Vikings actually do not have the advantage in the running game despite having Adrian Peterson. The running game is even and both defenses are dynamic. The key to this game comes down to Brett Favre vs Tony Romo. The one who can deliver down-field with big plays in the face of extreme pressure (DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer for Favre; Jared Allen for Romo) without turning the ball over will likely lead the team to victory.

SUPER BOWL "FAVORITE"

While the Saints have the highest percentage of winning the Super Bowl these numbers are highly speculative. The performance stats that come out of this weekend’s games will significantly dictate how well each team is expected to play in the Championship Games and subsequently the Super Bowl. For example, if Dallas were to play extremely well and soundly beat Minnesota while the Saints were to barely beat Arizona then the Saints chances of winning the NFC and subsequently the Super Bowl woul be significantly different from the projection above because of how well Dallas played at New Orleans and how they have played during the playoffs. Alternatively, if the Vikings were to easily handle Dallas then they may be the clear-cut favorite vs all other teams as the stats would indicate that the team was set to dominate as they did for the first 3 months of the regular season.

Given the number of upsets that occurred in the first weekend of the playoffs (Dallas was the only betting favorite to win) this may be one of those years where you never know what you will end up seeing.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations has gone on to win 71 percent of the time (182-74) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked #1 amongst ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

These simulations obviously cannot include the data that is generated throughout the playoffs. The NY Jets may only have a 2.5 percent chance of winning and an average of a 40 percent chance of beating an NFC opponent in the Super Bowl, but chances are if the Jets were to advance to the playoffs, the data that would be generated throughout a playoff run would result in the Jets having a better than 40 percent chance if they were to actually advance to the Super Bowl.

AFC

In the AFC the first round playoff games are all very close with the injured Patriots having a 53.7 percent chance of beating the Ravens and the Bengals having a 52.4 percent chance of beating the Jets. The Colts are solid 63 percent favorites in their Round 2 match-up vs the Ravens (if they upset New England), Bengals or Jets. The Chargers have a tougher second round match-up with their most likely opponent being the Patriots. That said, the Chargers would be substantial 60+ percent favorites in their second round match-up as well.

The Colts and Chargers’ chances of making the AFC Championship Game is nearly three times as high as the rest of the field because they have the first round bye and are simulation favorites vs all their Round 2 opponents. The Colts hold a slight 34.8 to 32.9 percent chance over the Chargers in winning the AFC. This edge is the result of the Colts home field advantage should they meet.

In past years one conference was often the clearly superior conference resulting in the NFC dominating the mid 1980s into the 1990s and the AFC dominating most of the last decade. This year there are a number of teams in both conferences that are legitimate contenders who have all taken turns at the top of various Power Rankings or were pre-season Super Bowl picks. With the exception of the Jets, who are beating the NFC opponent around 40 percent of the time, the rest of the AFC is winning between 47 and 51 percent of Super Bowl simulations.

NFC

In the NFC, the Cowboys are solid 66 percent favorites vs the Eagles. While many would say it is hard for a team to beat another quality team 3 times in a season, last year the Steelers beat the Ravens three times, and you cannot discount how much the Cowboys dominated the Eagles in Week 17 despite the Eagles playing for a #2 Seed, first-round bye and home field advantage in the second round. The Cardinals did not put forth a maximum effort in getting throttled by the Packers in Week 17, and the playoff re-match should be much closer, but the Packers are still slight 52 percent road favorites. The Cardinals are slight underdogs because Anquan Boldin is questionable and if he does play will likely be slowed by injury. They also have to deal with Aaron Rodgers who has rarely thrown interceptions this season while the Packers defense has led the league in forcing turnovers. If the Cardinals passing game is not 100 percent and the Packers continue to play as they have the second half of the season Green Bay should win for the second straight week.

The Saints and Vikings dominated the first 12 weeks of the season and if this Super Bowl forecast had been done then their chances of winning round 2 would be well over 60 percent. However, the significant improvement from the rest of the NFC playoff field combined with some of the late season struggles, especially by the Saints, results in a far closer second round forecast. Both the Saints and Vikings would still be clear 10+ percentage point favorites in second round.

SUPER BOWL "FAVORITE"

Overall, the Saints and Vikings, like the Colts and Chargers have the best chances of meeting in their conference championship games because they have that first round bye. The Colts currently have the best overall chance of winning the Super Bowl. This forecast is statistics based and does not penalize the Colts for their losses in Week 16 and 17 because the players that performed in most of those games are not the ones playing in simulations. The forecast also does not assume that the time off will negatively impact their team chemistry.

The Colts are not necessarily the best team in AccuScore’s simulations. They have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl because of their higher Round 2 probability. They are even money vs the Saints, Vikings, Cowboys and Packers in Super Bowl simulations on a neutral field. They are slight 51 percent favorites vs the Chargers at home. So the numbers are not necessarily the right indicator of how good each team is, but they do show just how important home field advantage and a first round bye are to helping a teams’ chances of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

The Ravens and Jets control their own destiny so their playoff chances are directly tied to their chances of winning in Week 17. The Ravens may have lost to Pittsburgh but their playoff chances improved 20 percentage points because Miami and Jacksonville lost. Baltimore is a double digit favorite winning over 78 percent of simulations vs Oakland which is why they have the highest probability of making the playoffs of any Wild Card contender.

The Bengals and Patriots are both 10-5 and technically they could compete for the #3 AFC Seed and get home field advantage should they meet each other, but it seems as though resting starters and preventing injury is more appealing that fighting for home field advantage in this scenario. At least that is the feeling in Vegas who make the Jets a 10 point favorite over the Bengals and Houston a 9 point favorite over the Patriots. AccuScore gives the Jets a high 72.5 percent chance of beating Cincinnati and making the playoffs.

In terms of Week 17 winning percentages for AFC Teams not in control of their own destiny the Broncos have the best chance of winning at 76 percent over Kansas City, Houston second at 67 percent, followed by Pittsburgh at 53 percent. Denver has the tie-breaker over Houston and has a much higher chance of winning than Pittsburgh which gives them the best chance at 21 percent, of these teams on the outside looking in. Houston has the tie-breaker over Pittsburgh and a higher Week 17 winning percentage which gives them the significant 17 percent to 9 percent lead over the Steelers.

NFC

Minnesota has a 70 percent chance of beating the Giants in Week 17 and have an excellent chance of holding on to the #2 Seed (nearly 80 percent). For the Eagles to catch the Vikings they need to beat Cowboys (35 percent chance) and have the Vikings lose, which gives them a 10.5 percent chance of getting the #2 spot in the NFC. The Cardinals need both the Vikings and Eagles to lose, in addition to winning and they also have a 10.5 percent chance of getting the #2 Seed.

The Cowboys have impressively won their last 2 games and did beat Philadelphia earlier this season. They are playing with confidence and actually have a 65 percent chance of beating Philadelphia in Week 17 and snatching the NFC East division win.

AFC

The Broncos lost a game they were heavily favored in and saw their chances cut in half dropping from 76 to just 37 percent. The Baltimore Ravens were the big winners in Week 15. Not only did they beat Chicago, but the Jets, Dolphins, and Broncos (a team they beat) all lost. The Ravens chances improved 24 percentage points to nearly 59 percent. Even though they control their own destiny, the Ravens are definitely not an overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs as they are just 1 game ahead of a number of teams.

There are two Week 16 games that could go a long way in settling the AFC Playoff picture. If the slight underdog Ravens beat Pittsburgh they will likely be a lock for a playoff spot and if Miami beats Houston they will eliminate the Texans from the playoff picture. If the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh then the AFC Playoff picture is an absolute mess.

Rather than spend thousands of words running through different tie-breaker scenarios, the playoff picture is simpler if we focus on who has the best chance of winning the rest of their games.

The Ravens have the best chance of winning both their remaining games and when you combine that with the fact that they are 8-6 and still have a 5% chance of winning the AFC North, they have the best chance of Wild Card contenders of making the playoffs. The Broncos are second in playoff probability at 37 percent despite only having a 24 percent chance of winning their remaining games because they are also 8-6. The rest of the teams’ playoff chances are correlated to their descending chances of winning both their remaining games. This analysis does assume the Colts still play their starters most of the way vs the Jets.

NFC

The Cowboys major upset of the Saints improved their playoff chances by nearly 23 percentage points and they now have an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs even though have two tough games the rest of the season. The fact is, the Cowboys are an extremely talented team that can beat anyone when their pass rush is effective and they run the ball well.

The Packers are still in very good shape as they are heavy 87 percent favorites in Week 16 vs Seattle and have a strong 45 percent chance of beating Arizona in Week 17. The Giants only have a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs but this analysis DOES NOT factor for the Vikings potentially resting their starters in Week 17. The Cowboys and Packers need to hope that the Eagles win in Week 16 which would force the Vikings to play their starters in Week 17 to maintain their #2 Playoff Seed.

The NFC Playoff picture is obviously far simpler than the AFC Playoff picture, although both conferences have two teams who control their own destiny. The fact is if the Packers and Cowboys miss the playoffs this season it will qualify as a major collapse. If the Ravens and/or Broncos fail to make the playoffs the collapse will not be as significant as the Packers or Cowboys, but it will still qualify as a collapse in our book.