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Here are a few quick reminders as you prepare for your fantasy drafts. The first is to always value players who are not one trick ponies, the value of elite QBs is on the rise so you should draft one early if you can, and consider likely late game situations to make start / sit decisions.

Rodgers Over Brees, MJD over Turner

I view managing a fantasy football team in the same way I would manage a conservative mutual fund. It’s more about assembling a portfolio of consistent performers that have a high probability of delivering an acceptable minimum level of performance rather than pick a bunch of stocks / players who are up 50% one week and down 75% the next.

With that in mind I always look for the “extra” stats that players can accumulate. For QBs that is rushing yards, for RBs that is receiving stats.

For example, Drew Brees is virtually everyone’s pick as the likely leading passer in the league this year and he should top 30+ passing TDs. While Aaron Rodgers is no slouch in either category it is likely that Brees will get the edge. However, Rodgers consistently runs for 10 to 20 yards per game while Brees had a whopping -1 all of last year. Rodgers has the ability to make up for a sub-par passing game with a nice 20 yard scramble. If Brees does not have 275+ yards and 2 TDs he is due for a sub-par game.

For QBs this means taking players who have reputations as relatively poor passers. Did you know that Seneca Wallace averaged 12.8 fantasy points in his 8 starts last year while Matt Ryan averaged 12.1 in his rookie of the year season? This means taking David Garrard over Carson Palmer, Shaun Hill and Jason Campbell over Chad Pennington, and Matt Cassel over Eli Manning.

I also value a player like Maurice Jones-Drew over Michael Turner. MJD will likely be 2^nd on the Jaguars in receiving yards and TDs. He is capable of 60+ receptions, 500+ yards receiving. He does not have to have average more than 4.0 ypc or 75 rushing yards per game to have big fantasy totals. Michael Turner had 6 receptions in the entire 2008 season. Turner averaged 16.8 fantasy points but had 4 games with 5 or less points because when the run defense was good he had no way of making up for the loss production.

In MJD’s worst rushing games (Week 1, 2, 5, 12) he still averaged 50 receiving yards per game. As the primary RB in Jacksonville this week MJD’s worse weeks should still result in 7+ fantasy points while Turner will have a few sub 5 point performances due to his 100% reliance on rushing.

The value of receiving yards is why I like players like Chris Johnson over Brandon Jacobs, Frank Gore over Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown over Ryan Grant, and Ray Rice over Willie Parker.

Take Brady, Manning, Brees, or Rodgers in First 2 Rounds

Most people stick with drafting running backs for the first 2 or even 3 rounds. I think this strategy was established over 5 years ago when fewer teams had a running back by committee and there were fewer QBs passing for 4,000+ yards and 27+ TDs. In 2008 the top 5 TD passers averaged 4,340 yards and 31 TD passes. In 2002 the Top 5 averaged 3,977 yards and 27 TDs. Over the past 6 seasons elite fantasy QB production has increased by +1.8 fantasy points per game.

In that same time period the Top 10 rushers’ average production decreased from 1,482 yards and 12.4 TDs in 2002 down to 1,383 yards and 10.8 TDs in 2008. This an average decrease of -1.2 fantasy points per game. With most leagues starting 1 QB and 2 RBs the elite QBs (Top 5) have increased their value while elite RBs (Top 10) are seeing their value decrease.

In 2008 the difference between the Top 10 and the Top 11 to 20 rushers was an average of 3.5 fantasy points. In 2002 this difference was 33% larger at 4.5 points different between Top 10 average and Top 11-20 average production. In 2002 the gap between the elite Top 5 QBs and the next level Top 6-10 was just 2.1 fantasy points per game. In 2008 this gap increased to 3.4 points per game.

In other words, the relative value of an elite QB is rising fast while the relative value of an elite RB is on the decline. As a result, I am a big proponent of taking one of the 5 elite QBs high in the draft.

I am likely going to pick an elite RB with my first pick knowing I will likely be able to get Brady, Brees, Rodgers or Peyton Manning as my second pick. I’m not including Kurt Warner in this list because I’m concerned about injuries.

Start QBs Who are Underdogs; RBs who are Favorites

Two of AccuScore’s more controversial fantasy forecasts are for Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers. Both players are averaging under 3,700 passing yards in simulations (around 225-230 yards per game each) which is well below most fantasy projections.

AccuScore thinks both the Cowboys and Chargers will be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. This means the teams should find themselves ahead late in games at a greater rate than they were in 2008. Playing from ahead results in more rush attempts in the 4^th quarter in an effort to work the clock and limit the chance of a costly turnover.

The fact is most starting QBs average more passing yards in losses than they do in wins.

If fantasy QBs were rated purely on Q1 to Q3 production Rivers and Romo would be in our Top 7, but when you consider the quality of the Chargers and Cowboys running game and the fact that both teams should be better this year these two potentially elite QBs may not be as productive as you would think.

The reverse is true for running backs. While a bunch of 4^th quarter rush attempts often hurts a RB’s average yards per carry, in most fantasy leagues this stat is not factored. A workhorse RB on a good team that is favored will likely see a bunch of rush attempts and short receptions when the offense shifts strategy to protect a late lead.

You should not use this factor to start a player who is forecasted for significantly fewer fantasy points than another player on your team. However, if you are deciding between two relatively equal potential starters, this is a valuable tool. The same factor that goes for QBs (more production late in games from teams that are down) applies for his WRs and TEs.