MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
N/A
Baltimore Orioles
N/A

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

N/A

Accuscore Probability

0
6
-0.5
under
0.5
over
Money Line
Side Value
44.4%
55.6%
Game Projection
  • Philadelphia Phillies
    4.9 Points
  • Baltimore Orioles
    5.1 Points
Big Win
  • PHI
    18.5%
  • BAL
    21.5%
Close Win
  • PHI
    19.7%
  • BAL
    25.3%

Game Prediction

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are 10-12 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Philadelphia Phillies who are 7-10 on the road this season. The Orioles have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Orioles' starter Andrew Cashner is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies' starter Nick Pivetta. Andrew Cashner has a 40% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Nick Pivetta has a 35% chance of a QS. If Andrew Cashner has a quality start the Orioles has a 78% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.8 and he has a 17% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Orioles win 58%. In Nick Pivetta quality starts the Phillies win 68%. He has a 45% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 68% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Baltimore Orioles is Manny Machado who averaged 2.48 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 44% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Orioles have a 67% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Odubel Herrera who averaged 2.75 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 49% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 57% chance of winning.

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Cesar Hernandez 4.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.07
Odubel Herrera 4.2 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.18
Nick Williams 4.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.5 0.11
Jorge Alfaro 4.2 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.17
Maikel Franco 4.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.21
Rhys Hoskins 3.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.13
Pedro Florimon 3.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.8 0.00
Aaron Altherr 3.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.11
Scott Kingery 3.7 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.06

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Nick Pivetta 5.3 3.2 6.3 3.1 1.6 8.3 1.11 0.37 0.45
Relievers 2.8 1.8 3.4 1.8 1.2 4.7 0.54 0.08 0.10

Batting

Pitching

Baltimore Orioles

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Trey Mancini 4.2 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.15
Adam Jones 4.3 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.15
Manny Machado 4.0 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.26
Jonathan Schoop 4.2 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 1.3 0.15
Chris Davis 3.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.15
Mark Trumbo 3.9 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 1.3 0.24
Pedro Alvarez 3.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.26
Danny Valencia 3.5 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.15
Chance Sisco 3.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 2.2 0.14

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Andrew Cashner 5.5 3.1 5.8 3.0 3.0 8.3 0.70 0.45 0.36
Relievers 2.9 1.7 3.3 1.7 1.4 4.7 0.33 0.10 0.09

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Philadelphia Phillies
  • Baltimore Orioles
  • Philadelphia Phillies
  • Baltimore Orioles
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies RECORD Baltimore Orioles RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 7-10, 41% -286 Record at Home 10-12, 45% -273 Baltimore Orioles
VS Baltimore Orioles 0-0 No Games VS Philadelphia Phillies 0-0 No Games N/A
vs Team Under .500 9-3, 75% 434 vs Team .500 or Better 4-15, 21% -857 Philadelphia Phillies
Record as Road Favorite 3-2, 60% 51 Record as Home Underdog 3-5, 38% -173 Philadelphia Phillies
When Nick Pivetta Starts 6-2, 75% 318 When Andrew Cashner Starts 2-6, 25% -306 Philadelphia Phillies
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies RECORD Baltimore Orioles RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 3-6, 33% -319 Record at Home 8-8, 50% -53 Baltimore Orioles
VS Baltimore Orioles 0-0 No Games VS Philadelphia Phillies 0-0 No Games N/A
vs Team Under .500 2-3, 40% -151 vs Team .500 or Better 5-10, 33% -543 Philadelphia Phillies
Record as Road Favorite 2-2, 50% -43 Record as Home Underdog 3-4, 43% -73 Philadelphia Phillies
When Nick Pivetta Starts 3-2, 60% 53 When Andrew Cashner Starts 1-4, 20% -319 Philadelphia Phillies
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Philadelphia Phillies RECORD Baltimore Orioles RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 8-8, 50% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 9-11, 45% Over UNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 4-5, 44% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 9-6, 60% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 39-37, 51% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 44-36, 55% Over UNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Nick Pivetta STARTS 2-5, 29% Over OVER-UNDER IN Andrew Cashner STARTS 3-5, 38% Over N/A