Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick: St. Louis Blues @ Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL on Tuesday: St. Louis Blues @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Accuscore’s NHL on Tuesday special offers an insight on inter-conference matchup between the St. Louis Blues and Toronto Maple Leafs. Both teams are considered playoff candidates, currently fourth in their respective conferences, and in the wildest predictions even dark horse contenders for the cup. At the moment, the latter assessment seems like a bit of a reach.

Accuscore’s Side Value Picks for every single game in NHL season 2017/2018 are 182-158 with a profit of +590!

Toronto entered the season with high hopes, led by head coach Mike Babcock, who made strides with his young team already last season. Possessing such talent as Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner and Morgan Rielly, expectations rose exponentially.

While Toronto is currently fourth in the Eastern Conference, they’ve lacked consistency. From 45 games they’ve lost 17 and won 17 in the regular time, while overtime and shootout games have been their bread and butter with 8-3 record. At home the trend is even stronger, as they are 7-1 in overtime or shootout, but only 6-7 in regulation, making the Leafs only 9th best team at home in the Eastern Conference.

Maple Leafs haven’t won straight up in past seven games, while losing three out of five in regulation. Their current home stand of five games has produced two shootout wins and two regulation losses with one overtime loss. The Leafs are in a bit of a slump, having collected less than a point per game from their past 15 games.

The same goes with their visitors, Blues. After starting the season by losing only four of their first 17 games, the Blues have succumbed to bottom-5 record in the West after that. The flying start has kept them higher up in the standing, but the fourth place in the West will not last long if they can’t find their stride again.

From the past 15 games they’ve only won four and are currently in a three-game losing streak. Of their 46 games, the Blues have lost 17 straight up and won 20, with the overtime/shootout record of 6-3. The difference between their performances at home or on the road is minimal.

The teams are closely matched in goals scored and goals allowed, with Toronto’s goal difference +15 and St. Louis’ +12. Goals scored goes for Toronto 3.24 vs 2.91, while in goals conceded Blues beats their hosts 2.65 vs 2.91.

Accuscore’s simulations

Accuscore simulations are quite well in line with the odds, with Toronto considered a slight favorites of 54.7%. Blues only win with 45.3% likelihood. A close game, especially inter-conference, indicates a heightened possibility for a draw, which in this case 27.2 %.

Accuscore’s trend records when predicting Toronto Maple Leafs games during current season: record at home 14-7 +207, record vs .500 or better opponent 15-10 +315 and record as home favorite 14-6 +307.

In simulations Toronto Maple Leafs outscore their opponents with 3.4 goals on average against 3.1 of the St. Louis Blues. The hosts’ Auston Matthews is the most likely scorer in both points and goals. He marks down at least one point with 62.7 % likelihood and a goal with 47.8 % probability. For the visitors, it’s a close contest between Vladimir Tarasenko and Brayden Schenn, who both score a point with a bit more than 53 % probability and a goal with 30% likelihood.

Analyst Picks:

  • There’s a tiny ~2 % value in St. Louis money-line win. Odds of +121 | 2.21 or better
  • The best bet can be found in a draw, with 27.7% likelihood. Odds of +261 | 3.61 or better
  • Total goes over 5 in 61 % of the simulations, so go for odds of -156 | 1.64 or better
  • Goals and points:
    • Matthews to score a point – odds of -168 | 1.60
    • Matthews to score a goal – odds of +110 | 2.10
    • Tarasenko, Schenn to score a point – odds of -112| 1.89