NHL on Tuesday: New Jersey Devils @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Metropolitan Division showdown pits two of the top three teams together as the Jackets host the Devils. The visitors have taken many by surprise with an excellent start of the season, while Columbus pretty much kept going where they left off last regular season. The Blue Jackets currently lead their division with 35 points from 27 games – with remarkable 8-1 record on OT & shootout and Devils hang back 3rd with 34 points in 26 games, literally a single win away from the top.
All of Accuscore’s NHL Money Line Side Value picks for 2017/2018 are so far 103-88 (53.9 %) with a profit of +681 (100 unit stake per bet).
However, the Devils fantastic run seems to have somewhat halted. They’re only 11th in the East in last 15 games after gathering measly 16 points. Last five doesn’t look that much better, as they only have six points to show and a horrible 5-0 loss in Arizona as their last performance before traveling to Ohio. The Devils are, however, one of the better teams playing away from home with 20 points from 14 games and only 3 straight up losses. An anomaly in Devil’s road games has been the amount of goals, with a staggering average of 6.64 (3.43 for and 3.21 against) compared to home games avg. of 5.58.
Columbus has not actually been that dominant as might’ve been expected looking at the standings. They’ve gone up and down, but with the fantastic record in games lasting +60 minutes, managed to hold their spot on top. They’re 8-2 in past 10 – including 4 OT wins. Home games have usually been Blue Jackets’ bread and butter and they are 10-4 at home, with 20 points in 14 games – funnily enough exactly the same as Devils’ record on the road.
Plenty of young talent available for both up-and-coming teams, there are no remarkable injury worries for neither team. Blue Jackets have been without Ryan Murray from their D for a week now, while the Devils are going without Mirco Mueller and Kyle Palmieri, who’ve been gone for about two weeks.
Accuscore simulations heavily back the home team to take two points. In money line simulations, the Blue Jackets eventually win with 67.4 % probability leaving the Devils with 32.6 %. In three-way markets, after 60 minutes of play, Blue Jackets win 50.55 % while the Devils take 24.45 %, leaving 25 % for the draw.
Accuscore is 8-6 with a profit of +389 in Devils’ road games ML this season and 10-4 with a profit of +249 in Blue Jackets home games ML.
The Blue Jackets outscore their visitors on average 3.4 to 2.4 and outshoot the Devils 36 – 30. The most likely players to score are Blue Jackets front line’s Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson. The duo manages to hit the twine approximately 0.45 times per simulation. The likeliest goal-scorer for the Devils is Taylor Hall, with an average of 0.38. Panarin is the only player approaching the 50 % mark in overall points scored in the game, with 49 % likelihood to add to his current point total of 20. Hall’s point percentage is just above 40.
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- Blue Jackets ML presents slight value and is worth a punt with odds of -206 | 1.49 or better
- Both teams have a tendency to take it to the overtime, so take a 3-way bet on a draw with odds of +300 | 4.00 or better
- Total of 5.5 goes over in 51.8 % of simulations. Odds of -107 | 1.94 or better for the over 5.5 goals should do
- Goals and points:
- Panarin to score a goal or Atkinson to score a goal – odds of +340 | 4.40
- Panarin to score a point – odds of +105 | 2.05
- Hall to score a point – odds of +139 | 2.39