Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick: NHL - Dallas Stars @ Washington Capitals

NHL on Tuesday: Dallas Stars @ Washington Capitals

Tuesday night in NHL features an intriguing game at the capital, with the Dallas Stars visiting Washington Capitals. Western conference Stars have succumbed to 9th place in their side, while Capitals are steady on the 4th place in the East.

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The visiting Stars have ran into all kinds of trouble lately and what seemed to be a surefire playoff spot has turned in to a battle for survival. Their current record 9th in the West and only fifth in the Central division, with surging Colorado Avalanche two points and a game in hand ahead. Stars have only won two of their last ten games and during their five-game road trip they’ve lost all, albeit two in overtime or shootout. Losing to Pittsburgh, Winnipeg or Toronto could be brushed off as justifiable losses to better teams, but falling to Ottawa and Montreal who only play for fun anymore is worrying. Stars are very much in contest for the playoffs, but they need an injection of energy and soon.

Accuscore’s NHL Money Line record in Washington Capitals home games is 25-11 with a hefty profit of +568 for the season and NHL Money Line record in Dallas Stars road games is 22-14 with a nice profit of +353. (100 unit stake on each bet)

The Capitals have been close to the top of east all season and had quite a consistent campaign. They’re leading the Metropolitan division, two points ahead of Penguins. Capitals’ four game winning streak was snapped by Flyers in Philly, but at home the Washington team has won five straight and seven in their past 10 home games.

At home the Capitals have scored on average a hefty 3.39 goals per game, while allowing 2.42. The Stars, on the other hand have been less than efficient on the road, with only 2.53 goals scored on average as compared to their home tally of 3.19 on average. On the road, the Stars allow on average 3.0 goals, while at home their D is much better at 2.4 goals allowed on average.

Accuscore’s simulations

In Accuscore simulations the home team Capitals are clear favorites, with 63% probability to win. There’s a slight risk of a draw since it’s an inter-conference game, but Capitals have been better in overtime and shootouts with an overall record of 10-7 and 6-2 at home against Stars 8-8 and 4-5 on the road. The odds on offer for Capitals ML win are around -120 | 1.80, which indicates probability of ~55%.

The Capitals take the edge in offensive efficiency, while Stars gain more shots on goal in the simulations. The home team scores on average 3.5 goals against Kari Lehtonen and Stars manage to put the puck past Braden Holtby on average 2.8 times.

Scoring is led by the home team’s top scorer Alex Ovechkin, who’ll bang in a goal with 49.9% and at least one point with 67.1% probability. Capitals’ center Nicklas Bäckström produces at least one point of support for Ovy with 61.3% probability, while Evgeny Kuznetsov manages 58.5%. For the visitors, it’s all about the top line: Jamie Benn 58.7%, Tyler Seguin 55.2% and Alex Radulov 52.8% to score at least one point. Most likely visiting player to score a goal is Jamie Benn with 33.4% likelihood.

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Analyst Picks

The visiting Stars have been struggling as of late while Capitals are keeping up the pace. The inter-conference game smells a bit like a draw, but with nice odds available for Capitals win after ot or so, we like the home team in many ways.

  • Washington Capitals ML win should be played with odds of -170 | 1.59
  • 3-way bet for home win is risky, but worth a shot with odds of -112 | 1.89
  • The goal total goes OVER 5.5 in 57.6% of the simulations, so take the over with -135 | 1.74
  • Goals & Points:
    • To score a goal: Alex Ovechkin, odds of +101 | 2.01
    • To score a goal: Jamie Benn, odds of +200 | 3.00
    • Ovechkin, Bäckström to score a point: odds of -156 | 1.64
    • Benn, Seguin, Radulov to score a point: odds of -108 | 1.93

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*Use code NHL25 for 25% off an ALL SPORTS membership: Limited time Offer!
*First time members get a free 7-day trial of AccuScore’s full site when you register for a monthly membership.