Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick: New Jersey Devils @ Boston Bruins

NHL on Tuesday: New Jersey Devils @ Boston Bruins

NHL’s Tuesday evening offers an intriguing matchup from the top of the Eastern Conference. High-flying Boston Bruins, currently 2nd in the East and Atlantic Division play host to New Jersey Devils, who are 5th in the East and 2nd in their respective Metropolitan Division.

The Devils started the season on the high, but have since fallen hard – they’ve only won two of their past ten games, with five regulation losses. Boston, on the other hand, have done exactly the contrary and are the hottest team in the NHL at the moment: they’ve won seven of their last ten and 12 of their last 15.

The Bruins are in such a form it looks impossible to stop them. They’ve scored on average 3.8 goals in their past 10 home games, while only allowing 1.9. The Devils look bad in those categories, scoring only 2.3 goals in their past 10 road games allowing 3.4.

Both scoring and keeping the opponents from scoring has been a big issue for the Devils lately. Shaky performances from usually top-notch goaltender Cory Schneider have added to their issues, but it hardly explains the problems in offensive end. Devils have only two players in top-100 of NHL scoring race, with Taylor Hall 19th with 48 points and rookie Jesper Bratt 99th with 31 points. In comparison, Bruins – not one of the highest scoring teams anyway – have four players in top-100.

Accuscore’s simulations

Accuscore simulations are well in line with current odds, that have moved towards the Bruins heavily since opening at around -156 | 1.65 for the home team win. The Bruins win 62.7 % of the simulations and Devils take the points with 37.3 % probability. The likelihood of a draw is rather low, with Bruins overwhelming favorites to take the points already in regulation: there’s 56 % chance the points remain in Boston after 60 minutes of hockey.

In simulations Boston Bruins score on average 3.3 goals, while Devils manage to surprise red-hot Tuukka Rask 2.5 times. Bruins forwards are likely to put up good numbers, led by Brad Marchand, who is scoring a goal with 47.6 % probability. For the visitors, there’s only one player worth mentioning: Taylor Hall adds to his point total with 56.6 % probability, but otherwise it all quiet in the eastern front. Boston’s Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and David Krejci, along with Marchand, all have over 55 % chance of scoring at least one point.

Analyst Picks:

The value for Bruins’ moneyline win is gone because the movement in odds, but they’re such overwhelming favorites it is not advisable to bet against.

  • There’s marginal value in Boston win in regulation. Odds of -118 | 1.85 or better
  • Total goes over 5.5 in 52 % of the simulations, so go for odds of -108 | 1.93 or better
  • Goals and points:
    • Brad Marchand to score a goal – odds of +110 | 2.10
    • Taylor Hall to score a point – odds of -131 | 1.77
    • Pastrnak, Bergeron, Krejci to score a point – odds of -132| 1.76