Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick: Los Angeles Kings @ Vegas Golden Knights

NHL on Tuesday: Los Angeles Kings @ Vegas Golden Knights

Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights face-off in a back-to-back game tonight at Sin City. Yesterday the teams battled long and hard in the City of Angels, with the hosts snatching two points in overtime by Dustin Brown’s power-play goal.

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This season’s expansion team Vegas Golden Knights has taken the whole league by surprise and is currently leading the Western conference with 87 points in 52 games. They’ve already secured a winning record in the regular season and are actually looking like proper contenders, or at least challengers for the Stanley Cup. Vegas Golden Knights’ record at home is even more impressive: they’ve only lost seven out of 31 and two of those in overtime or shootout, gathering league leading 50 points at home. During their recent home stand Vegas Golden Knights won five of seven, falling only to Flyers and Ducks.

Accuscore’s record in picking Vegas Golden Knights games at home is 24-7 with a profit of +1344 for the season and record in picking Vegas Golden Knights games against teams over .500 is 22-11 with a profit of +1390.

Los Angeles Kings were already counted out of the Stanley Cup contest by many, but they’ve put up a decent fight lately and are likely to be in the mix for the last playoff spots. Currently Kings are eight in the west, with 73 points in 63 games. They’ve not played particularly well at any point over the season, but have a knack to turn tight games in their favor. Out of 14 games going to overtime, they’ve won nine. Kings are, however, second best Western Conference team on the road, with 40 points in 34 games. They’ve won their last three and six of their last 10 on the road.

Vegas Golden Knights have been in a magnificent goal-scoring form, banging in a western conference leading 217 goals, averaging 3.5 goals per game. Defensively they’ve been only alright, 6th in the west allowing 169 goals, 2.73 per game. At home, Vegas Golden Knights shine in both categories: goals scored average is 3.74 and goals conceded 2.32. Kings on the other hand are 9th in West in goals scored, with an average of 2.86 and 2nd in goals conceded with only 2.49 goals allowed per game. On the road their numbers turn upside down: 2.88 goals scored ranks 2nd and 2.58 goals allowed 5th in the Western Conference.

Accuscore’s simulations

In Accuscore’s simulations Vegas Golden Knights wins with 62.5% probability, leaving the Kings with 37.5%. The teams have been evenly matched in their short history and the likelihood of a draw is slightly higher than usual, 26%. Three out of four games between the teams have gone overtime.

The most common score between the teams has been 2-2 after 60 minutes of play and it seems quite likely this time around as well. On average Vegas Golden Knights scores 3.0 goals in simulations, while the visiting Kings score 2.4. The total is then 5.4 on average.

While the Vegas Golden Knights have no players in top-15 of the NHL scoring race, Jonathan Marchessault is the most likely scorer in tonight’s game. Marchessault scores a goal with 30.5% probability and at least one point with 62.9% likelihood. Leading the line for the Kings is Anze Kopitar in points, with 53.6% and Tanner Pearson in goals with 27.3%.

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Analyst Picks

The Vegas Golden Knights have been in great form at home, but so have the Kings on the road. There’s slight value for the moneyline home win, with a risky bet it’s going to come after overtime or shootout.

  • Vegas Golden Knights ML win should be played with odds of -166 | 1.60
  • 3-way bet for draw is risky, but worth a shot with odds of +285 | 3.85
  • The goal total stays under 5.5 in 56.6% of the simulations, so take the under with -130 | 1.77