NHL on Tuesday: Anaheim Ducks @ Boston Bruins
The All-Star break is done and dusted in the NHL and the teams back to normal action with 12 games on a Tuesday night. We’ll have a closer look at one of the top matchups with high-flying Boston Bruins and resurging Anaheim Ducks.
We’ve featured Bruins in these analysis for quite a bit lately as they’ve been in a scintillating form. They lead the whole of NHL for the past 30 or so games, only a slow start putting them down to 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. They’ve collected 66 points – 1.40 an average points per game. Their record is 25-4-8-10 (wins, ot-losses, ot-wins, losses).
Accuscore’s record in picking Bruins home games is 16-9 with a profit of +195 for the season.
If the Bruins suffered from a slow start, the same goes for the Ducks. To add insult to injury, they were also hit with a plethora of injuries to key players and have only recently managed to get healthy – for the most part. They’ve already played 50 games, gathering 57 points. They have however won altogether 24 games, which points in the right directions. Currently sitting 11th in the West, but still very much in contest for the playoffs.
In the past 15 games Ducks have collected 21 points, averaging 1.4 per game – exactly the same as Bruins for the season. Bruins of course then have improved since the start and average 1.8 in past 15. Both teams are in good form, with Bruins winning five straight and Ducks winning four of last five.
In Accuscore simulations the Bruins are the likeliest winners, but not with such marginal indicated by oddsmakers. From the simulations the hosts win 52.6 %, while the odds market suggest Bruins to win closer to 60 % probability. In the 3-way market the odds are also tilted heavily towards the hosts with just under 50 %, while in Accuscore simulations Bruins win 43 % of the games in the regulation.
In simulations Boston Bruins score on average 2.8 goals and Anaheim Ducks score 2.7 on average. Bruins is likely to start with their backup-keeper Anton Khudobin, who has been in great form allowing 1.97 goals on average in his past three starts behind Tuukka Rask. Bruins will also be without suspended Brad Marchand and injured Charlie McAvoy, which should help Ducks’ case.
Two of the top scorers in the simulations are still wearing the home team jersey: Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak score at least one point with 60 % probability. First in line for the visitors is Ryan Getzlaf with 54 % likelihood of scoring a point.
With both teams in good form, coming off the All-Star break and this being an inter-conference matchup, it’s likely to be a bit closer than suspected by the oddsmakers. Missing Rask, Marchand and McAvoy also lower the home team’s chances – if only marginally. Most likely result is a 2-2, 3-3 draw and then it’s all a coin flip after the regulation.
Accuscore’s NHL Inter-Conference Side Value selections have made a profit of +379 with a record of 6-2 in the past 7 days.
- There’s some value in Ducks ML win, which should be taken with odds of +111 | 2.11
- 3-way bet for draw (X) is a good bet at everything better than +275 | 3.75
- The total markets are spot on compared to simulations, so it’s a no go
- Goals and points:
- Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak to score a point – odds of -150 | 1.67
- Ryan Getzlaf to score a point – odds of -116 | 1.86
- Pastrnak to score a goal – odds of +138 | 2.38