Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos 9/23/2012
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Expect a close game with the Houston Texans winning 47% of simulations, and the Denver Broncos 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Houston Texans commit fewer turnovers in 45% of simulations and they go on to win 72% when they take care of the ball. The Denver Broncos wins 76% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Arian Foster is averaging 93 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (37% chance) then he helps his team win 72%. Peyton Manning is averaging 264 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (32% chance) then he helps his team win 65%.
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Houston Texans | ATS RECORD | Denver Broncos | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 5-2-0 | All Games | 3-3-0 | Houston Texans |
| Road Games | 2-1-0 | Home Games | 2-1-0 | No Edge |
| When Favored | 5-2-0 | When Underdog | 1-3-0 | Houston Texans |
| Non-Division Opp | 3-2-0 | Non-Division Opp | 1-3-0 | Houston Texans |
| Opp .500+ Record | 2-1-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 1-3-0 | Houston Texans |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| Houston Texans | ATS RECORD | Denver Broncos | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 10-6-1 | All Games | 8-9-0 | Houston Texans |
| Road Games | 5-3-0 | Home Games | 2-7-0 | Houston Texans |
| When Favored | 7-4-0 | When Underdog | 7-4-0 | No Edge |
| Non-Division Opp | 6-5-0 | Non-Division Opp | 5-6-0 | Houston Texans |
| Opp .500+ Record | 5-3-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 4-6-0 | Houston Texans |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Houston Texans | O-U-P RECORD | Denver Broncos | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 4-2-1 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 4-2-0 | OVER |
| On Road | 1-1-1 | At Home | 2-1-0 | OVER |
| All Totals Last Season | 6-10-0 | All Totals Last Season | 9-7-0 | UNDER |
| On Road Last Season | 4-4-0 | At Home Last Season | 5-3-0 | OVER |
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