October 25, 2012 3:10 PM UTC

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns 9/23/2012

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Expect a close game with the Buffalo Bills winning 56% of simulations, and the Cleveland Browns 44% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Buffalo Bills commit fewer turnovers in 58% of simulations and they go on to win 75% when they take care of the ball. The Cleveland Browns wins 72% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. C.J. Spiller is averaging 86 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 76%. Trent Richardson is averaging 74 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (31% chance) then he helps his team win 69%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Buffalo BillsATS RECORDCleveland BrownsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games3-4-0All Games3-3-1Cleveland Browns
Road Games2-2-0Home Games2-1-1Cleveland Browns
When Favored2-1-0When Underdog3-3-1Buffalo Bills
Non-Division Opp3-2-0Non-Division Opp1-3-0Buffalo Bills
Opp Under .5002-2-0Opp Under .5000-1-1Buffalo Bills

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Buffalo BillsATS RECORDCleveland BrownsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-9-1All Games7-8-1Cleveland Browns
Road Games2-5-1Home Games2-5-0No Edge
When Favored2-4-0When Underdog5-4-0Cleveland Browns
Non-Division Opp4-5-1Non-Division Opp3-6-1Buffalo Bills
Opp Under .5001-4-0Opp Under .5003-2-1Cleveland Browns

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Buffalo BillsO-U-P RECORDCleveland BrownsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)5-2-0All Totals (O-U-P)3-4-0OVER
On Road2-2-0At Home1-2-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season10-5-1All Totals Last Season5-11-0UNDER
On Road Last Season5-2-1At Home Last Season2-6-0UNDER

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