February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens 9/22/2013

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Expect a close game with the Houston Texans winning 43% of simulations, and the Baltimore Ravens 57% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Houston Texans commit fewer turnovers in 37% of simulations and they go on to win 72% when they take care of the ball. The Baltimore Ravens wins 76% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Arian Foster is averaging 77 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Joe Flacco is averaging 268 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (38% chance) then he helps his team win 62%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Houston TexansATS RECORDBaltimore RavensATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games3-13-0All Games6-9-1Baltimore Ravens
Road Games2-6-0Home Games4-4-1Baltimore Ravens
When Favored0-7-0When Underdog4-4-1Baltimore Ravens
Non-Division Opp2-8-0Non-Division Opp4-5-1Baltimore Ravens
Opp .500+ Record2-7-0Opp Under .5001-5-0Houston Texans

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Houston TexansATS RECORDBaltimore RavensATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-6-1All Games6-9-1Houston Texans
Road Games4-3-1Home Games3-5-1Houston Texans
When Favored8-5-1When Underdog2-4-0Houston Texans
Non-Division Opp5-4-1Non-Division Opp4-6-0Houston Texans
Opp .500+ Record4-2-0Opp .500+ Record1-6-1Houston Texans

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Houston TexansO-U-P RECORDBaltimore RavensO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)9-7-0All Totals (O-U-P)7-8-1OVER
On Road3-5-0At Home3-5-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season8-7-1All Totals Last Season10-5-1OVER
On Road Last Season4-3-1At Home Last Season6-1-1OVER

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