February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins 9/22/2013

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Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 52% of simulations, and the Miami Dolphins 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 53% of simulations and they go on to win 71% when they take care of the ball. The Miami Dolphins wins 70% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 275 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (37% chance) then he helps his team win 59%. Lamar Miller is averaging 48 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (20% chance) then he helps his team win 71%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Atlanta FalconsATS RECORDMiami DolphinsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-9-1All Games9-7-0Miami Dolphins
Road Games3-5-0Home Games5-3-0Miami Dolphins
When Underdog5-6-0When Favored2-5-0Atlanta Falcons
Non-Division Opp3-6-1Non-Division Opp7-3-0Miami Dolphins
Opp .500+ Record1-5-1Opp Under .5003-2-0Miami Dolphins

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Atlanta FalconsATS RECORDMiami DolphinsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-6-1All Games8-8-0Atlanta Falcons
Road Games5-2-1Home Games5-3-0Atlanta Falcons
When Underdog2-0-0When Favored2-3-0Atlanta Falcons
Non-Division Opp8-2-0Non-Division Opp5-5-0Atlanta Falcons
Opp Under .5002-5-0Opp .500+ Record4-4-0Miami Dolphins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Atlanta FalconsO-U-P RECORDMiami DolphinsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)9-7-0All Totals (O-U-P)6-9-1UNDER
On Road4-4-0At Home3-5-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season5-11-0All Totals Last Season7-9-0UNDER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season3-5-0UNDER

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