December 30, 2012 10:52 AM UTC

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions 12/30/2012

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Expect a close game with the Chicago Bears winning 54% of simulations, and the Detroit Lions 45% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Chicago Bears commit fewer turnovers in 68% of simulations and they go on to win 68% when they take care of the ball. The Detroit Lions wins 78% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Forte is averaging 59 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (18% chance) then he helps his team win 78%. Mikel LeShoure is averaging 50 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 67%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Chicago BearsATS RECORDDetroit LionsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games7-8-0All Games4-10-1Chicago Bears
Road Games4-3-0Home Games1-5-0Chicago Bears
When Favored6-5-0When Underdog2-4-1Chicago Bears
Division Opp1-4-0Division Opp1-4-0No Edge
Opp Under .5002-3-0Opp .500+ Record3-6-1Chicago Bears

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Chicago BearsATS RECORDDetroit LionsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-8-0All Games8-9-0Chicago Bears
Road Games4-4-0Home Games4-4-0No Edge
When Favored4-3-0When Underdog3-3-0Chicago Bears
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp1-5-0Chicago Bears
Opp .500+ Record3-3-0Opp .500+ Record2-6-0Chicago Bears

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Chicago BearsO-U-P RECORDDetroit LionsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)8-7-0All Totals (O-U-P)9-6-0OVER
On Road5-2-0At Home4-3-0OVER
All Totals Last Season9-7-0All Totals Last Season10-6-0OVER
On Road Last Season3-5-0At Home Last Season3-5-0UNDER

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