Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions 12/30/2012
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Expect a close game with the Chicago Bears winning 54% of simulations, and the Detroit Lions 45% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Chicago Bears commit fewer turnovers in 68% of simulations and they go on to win 68% when they take care of the ball. The Detroit Lions wins 78% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Forte is averaging 59 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (18% chance) then he helps his team win 78%. Mikel LeShoure is averaging 50 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 67%.
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Chicago Bears | ATS RECORD | Detroit Lions | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 7-8-0 | All Games | 4-10-1 | Chicago Bears |
| Road Games | 4-3-0 | Home Games | 1-5-0 | Chicago Bears |
| When Favored | 6-5-0 | When Underdog | 2-4-1 | Chicago Bears |
| Division Opp | 1-4-0 | Division Opp | 1-4-0 | No Edge |
| Opp Under .500 | 2-3-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 3-6-1 | Chicago Bears |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| Chicago Bears | ATS RECORD | Detroit Lions | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 8-8-0 | All Games | 8-9-0 | Chicago Bears |
| Road Games | 4-4-0 | Home Games | 4-4-0 | No Edge |
| When Favored | 4-3-0 | When Underdog | 3-3-0 | Chicago Bears |
| Division Opp | 3-3-0 | Division Opp | 1-5-0 | Chicago Bears |
| Opp .500+ Record | 3-3-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 2-6-0 | Chicago Bears |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Chicago Bears | O-U-P RECORD | Detroit Lions | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 8-7-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 9-6-0 | OVER |
| On Road | 5-2-0 | At Home | 4-3-0 | OVER |
| All Totals Last Season | 9-7-0 | All Totals Last Season | 10-6-0 | OVER |
| On Road Last Season | 3-5-0 | At Home Last Season | 3-5-0 | UNDER |
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