December 30, 2012 10:52 AM UTC

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals 12/30/2012

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Expect a close game with the Baltimore Ravens winning 43% of simulations, and the Cincinnati Bengals 56% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Baltimore Ravens commit fewer turnovers in 42% of simulations and they go on to win 69% when they take care of the ball. The Cincinnati Bengals wins 77% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Bernard Pierce is averaging 62 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (18% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging 61 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 74%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Baltimore RavensATS RECORDCincinnati BengalsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-8-1All Games8-6-1Cincinnati Bengals
Road Games3-3-1Home Games2-4-0Baltimore Ravens
When Underdog2-3-0When Favored5-4-1Cincinnati Bengals
Division Opp2-2-1Division Opp1-3-1Baltimore Ravens
Opp .500+ Record1-6-1Opp .500+ Record2-2-0Cincinnati Bengals

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Baltimore RavensATS RECORDCincinnati BengalsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-7-1All Games9-6-2Cincinnati Bengals
Road Games4-4-0Home Games3-5-2Baltimore Ravens
When Underdog1-0-0When Favored4-3-1Baltimore Ravens
Division Opp4-1-1Division Opp1-4-1Baltimore Ravens
Opp .500+ Record4-0-1Opp .500+ Record2-4-1Baltimore Ravens

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Baltimore RavensO-U-P RECORDCincinnati BengalsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)9-5-1All Totals (O-U-P)6-9-0OVER
On Road3-4-0At Home2-5-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season9-7-0All Totals Last Season10-6-0OVER
On Road Last Season5-3-0At Home Last Season5-3-0OVER

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