February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers 12/22/2013

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Expect a close game with the New Orleans Saints winning 40% of simulations, and the Carolina Panthers 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New Orleans Saints commit fewer turnovers in 28% of simulations and they go on to win 69% when they take care of the ball. The Carolina Panthers wins 72% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Mark Ingram is averaging 38 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (14% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. Cam Newton is averaging 66 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (35% chance) then he helps his team win 77%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New Orleans SaintsATS RECORDCarolina PanthersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-8-1All Games9-7-1Carolina Panthers
Road Games2-7-1Home Games6-2-0Carolina Panthers
When Underdog1-3-1When Favored7-4-1Carolina Panthers
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp4-2-0Carolina Panthers
Opp .500+ Record5-4-0Opp .500+ Record3-3-0New Orleans Saints

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New Orleans SaintsATS RECORDCarolina PanthersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-8-0All Games9-7-0Carolina Panthers
Road Games4-4-0Home Games3-5-0New Orleans Saints
When Underdog3-4-0When Favored2-4-0New Orleans Saints
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp4-2-0Carolina Panthers
Opp Under .5005-2-0Opp Under .5004-2-0New Orleans Saints

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New Orleans SaintsO-U-P RECORDCarolina PanthersO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)5-13-0All Totals (O-U-P)5-12-0UNDER
On Road1-9-0At Home2-7-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season10-5-1All Totals Last Season8-7-1OVER
On Road Last Season5-2-1At Home Last Season3-4-1OVER

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