February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions 12/16/2013

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Expect a close game with the Baltimore Ravens winning 44% of simulations, and the Detroit Lions 56% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Baltimore Ravens commit fewer turnovers in 57% of simulations and they go on to win 64% when they take care of the ball. The Detroit Lions wins 83% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Joe Flacco is averaging 261 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (34% chance) then he helps his team win 57%. Matthew Stafford is averaging 290 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (32% chance) then he helps his team win 63%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Baltimore RavensATS RECORDDetroit LionsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-9-1All Games7-9-0Detroit Lions
Road Games2-5-1Home Games3-5-0Detroit Lions
When Underdog4-4-1When Favored5-7-0Baltimore Ravens
Non-Division Opp4-5-1Non-Division Opp2-8-0Baltimore Ravens
Opp .500+ Record5-1-1Opp .500+ Record4-4-0Baltimore Ravens

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Baltimore RavensATS RECORDDetroit LionsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-9-1All Games5-10-1Baltimore Ravens
Road Games3-4-1Home Games2-5-0Baltimore Ravens
When Underdog2-4-0When Favored2-6-0Baltimore Ravens
Non-Division Opp4-6-0Non-Division Opp3-6-1Baltimore Ravens
Opp Under .5003-2-0Opp .500+ Record3-6-1Baltimore Ravens

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Baltimore RavensO-U-P RECORDDetroit LionsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)7-8-1All Totals (O-U-P)8-8-0UNDER
On Road4-3-1At Home5-3-0OVER
All Totals Last Season10-5-1All Totals Last Season10-6-0OVER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season5-3-0OVER

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