December 17, 2012 1:23 AM UTC

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots 12/16/2012

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Expect a close game with the San Francisco 49ers winning 40% of simulations, and the New England Patriots 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The San Francisco 49ers commit fewer turnovers in 58% of simulations and they go on to win 57% when they take care of the ball. The New England Patriots wins 84% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Frank Gore is averaging 61 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (23% chance) then he helps his team win 62%. Tom Brady is averaging 269 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 67%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

San Francisco 49ersATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-4-0All Games8-6-0San Francisco 49ers
Road Games5-2-0Home Games3-4-0San Francisco 49ers
When Underdog2-0-0When Favored7-6-0San Francisco 49ers
Non-Division Opp8-2-0Non-Division Opp6-3-0San Francisco 49ers
Opp .500+ Record7-3-0Opp .500+ Record5-4-0San Francisco 49ers

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

San Francisco 49ersATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games12-3-1All Games9-7-0San Francisco 49ers
Road Games5-3-0Home Games4-4-0San Francisco 49ers
When Underdog3-1-1When Favored8-7-0San Francisco 49ers
Non-Division Opp8-1-1Non-Division Opp5-5-0San Francisco 49ers
Opp .500+ Record6-1-0Opp .500+ Record5-4-0San Francisco 49ers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

San Francisco 49ersO-U-P RECORDNew England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)6-7-0All Totals (O-U-P)11-3-0OVER
On Road3-4-0At Home6-1-0OVER
All Totals Last Season7-9-0All Totals Last Season11-5-0OVER
On Road Last Season3-5-0At Home Last Season5-3-0No Edge

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