February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills 12/1/2013

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Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 50% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 50% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 22% of simulations and they go on to win 82% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 59% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 282 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (31% chance) then he helps his team win 63%. C.J. Spiller is averaging 47 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (19% chance) then he helps his team win 72%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Atlanta FalconsATS RECORDBuffalo BillsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-9-1All Games8-8-0Buffalo Bills
Road Games3-5-0Home Games6-2-0Buffalo Bills
When Underdog5-6-0When Favored1-1-0Buffalo Bills
Non-Division Opp3-6-1Non-Division Opp4-6-0Buffalo Bills
Opp Under .5003-3-0Opp Under .5002-3-0Atlanta Falcons

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Atlanta FalconsATS RECORDBuffalo BillsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-6-1All Games7-9-0Atlanta Falcons
Road Games5-2-1Home Games4-4-0Atlanta Falcons
When Underdog2-0-0When Favored5-2-0Atlanta Falcons
Non-Division Opp8-2-0Non-Division Opp4-6-0Atlanta Falcons
Opp Under .5002-5-0Opp .500+ Record2-4-0Buffalo Bills

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Atlanta FalconsO-U-P RECORDBuffalo BillsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)9-7-0All Totals (O-U-P)10-6-0OVER
On Road4-4-0At Home4-4-0OVER
All Totals Last Season5-11-0All Totals Last Season9-7-0UNDER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season6-2-0OVER

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