November 12, 2012 3:50 PM UTC

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars 11/8/2012

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Expect a close game with the Indianapolis Colts winning 56% of simulations, and the Jacksonville Jaguars 44% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Indianapolis Colts commit fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations and they go on to win 77% when they take care of the ball. The Jacksonville Jaguars wins 59% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Donald Brown is averaging 22 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (10% chance) then he helps his team win 76%. Rashad Jennings is averaging 91 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 67%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Indianapolis ColtsATS RECORDJacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-3-0All Games4-5-0Indianapolis Colts
Road Games2-2-0Home Games0-5-0Indianapolis Colts
When Favored2-1-0When Underdog4-5-0Indianapolis Colts
Division Opp2-1-0Division Opp1-2-0Indianapolis Colts
Opp Under .5003-2-0Opp .500+ Record2-4-0Indianapolis Colts

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Indianapolis ColtsATS RECORDJacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-10-0All Games7-9-0Jacksonville Jaguars
Road Games3-5-0Home Games4-4-0Jacksonville Jaguars
When Favored0-1-0When Underdog5-9-0Jacksonville Jaguars
Division Opp2-4-0Division Opp4-2-0Jacksonville Jaguars
Opp Under .5000-4-0Opp Under .5002-3-0Jacksonville Jaguars

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Indianapolis ColtsO-U-P RECORDJacksonville JaguarsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)2-6-1All Totals (O-U-P)4-5-0UNDER
On Road1-2-1At Home2-3-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season7-9-0All Totals Last Season5-11-0UNDER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season3-5-0UNDER

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