December 03, 2012 4:29 PM UTC

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons 11/29/2012

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Expect a close game with the New Orleans Saints winning 48% of simulations, and the Atlanta Falcons 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New Orleans Saints commit fewer turnovers in 36% of simulations and they go on to win 74% when they take care of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons wins 66% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Drew Brees is averaging 353 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 59%. Matt Ryan is averaging 324 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 56%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New Orleans SaintsATS RECORDAtlanta FalconsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-6-0All Games7-4-1Atlanta Falcons
Road Games3-3-0Home Games3-3-1No Edge
When Underdog2-3-0When Favored5-4-1Atlanta Falcons
Division Opp2-2-0Division Opp1-2-1New Orleans Saints
Opp .500+ Record2-3-0Opp Under .5002-4-0New Orleans Saints

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New Orleans SaintsATS RECORDAtlanta FalconsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games12-5-0All Games9-8-0New Orleans Saints
Road Games4-4-0Home Games5-3-0Atlanta Falcons
When Underdog1-1-0When Favored6-5-0Atlanta Falcons
Division Opp4-2-0Division Opp3-3-0New Orleans Saints
Opp .500+ Record7-1-0Opp .500+ Record2-5-0New Orleans Saints

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New Orleans SaintsO-U-P RECORDAtlanta FalconsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)7-4-1All Totals (O-U-P)4-8-0UNDER
On Road3-2-1At Home1-5-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season9-7-0All Totals Last Season7-9-0No Edge
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season3-5-0UNDER

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