New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons 11/29/2012
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Expect a close game with the New Orleans Saints winning 48% of simulations, and the Atlanta Falcons 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New Orleans Saints commit fewer turnovers in 36% of simulations and they go on to win 74% when they take care of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons wins 66% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Drew Brees is averaging 353 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 59%. Matt Ryan is averaging 324 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 56%.
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| New Orleans Saints | ATS RECORD | Atlanta Falcons | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 6-6-0 | All Games | 7-4-1 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Road Games | 3-3-0 | Home Games | 3-3-1 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 2-3-0 | When Favored | 5-4-1 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Division Opp | 2-2-0 | Division Opp | 1-2-1 | New Orleans Saints |
| Opp .500+ Record | 2-3-0 | Opp Under .500 | 2-4-0 | New Orleans Saints |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| New Orleans Saints | ATS RECORD | Atlanta Falcons | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 12-5-0 | All Games | 9-8-0 | New Orleans Saints |
| Road Games | 4-4-0 | Home Games | 5-3-0 | Atlanta Falcons |
| When Underdog | 1-1-0 | When Favored | 6-5-0 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Division Opp | 4-2-0 | Division Opp | 3-3-0 | New Orleans Saints |
| Opp .500+ Record | 7-1-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 2-5-0 | New Orleans Saints |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| New Orleans Saints | O-U-P RECORD | Atlanta Falcons | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 7-4-1 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 4-8-0 | UNDER |
| On Road | 3-2-1 | At Home | 1-5-0 | UNDER |
| All Totals Last Season | 9-7-0 | All Totals Last Season | 7-9-0 | No Edge |
| On Road Last Season | 4-4-0 | At Home Last Season | 3-5-0 | UNDER |
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