February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs 11/24/2013

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Expect a close game with the San Diego Chargers winning 48% of simulations, and the Kansas City Chiefs 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The San Diego Chargers commit fewer turnovers in 32% of simulations and they go on to win 75% when they take care of the ball. The Kansas City Chiefs wins 66% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Ryan Mathews is averaging 60 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (16% chance) then he helps his team win 74%. Jamaal Charles is averaging 94 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 73%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

San Diego ChargersATS RECORDKansas City ChiefsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games11-6-1All Games10-7-0San Diego Chargers
Road Games6-3-1Home Games2-6-0San Diego Chargers
When Underdog8-1-1When Favored7-5-0San Diego Chargers
Division Opp4-3-0Division Opp3-3-0San Diego Chargers
Opp .500+ Record5-2-1Opp Under .5005-3-0San Diego Chargers

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

San Diego ChargersATS RECORDKansas City ChiefsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games7-9-0All Games5-11-0San Diego Chargers
Road Games5-3-0Home Games3-5-0San Diego Chargers
When Underdog4-4-0When Favored0-1-0San Diego Chargers
Division Opp4-2-0Division Opp1-5-0San Diego Chargers
Opp Under .5003-4-0Opp Under .5002-7-0San Diego Chargers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

San Diego ChargersO-U-P RECORDKansas City ChiefsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)7-11-0All Totals (O-U-P)8-9-0UNDER
On Road3-7-0At Home3-5-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season10-6-0All Totals Last Season7-9-0OVER
On Road Last Season6-2-0At Home Last Season3-5-0OVER

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