February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots 11/24/2013

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Expect a close game with the Denver Broncos winning 44% of simulations, and the New England Patriots 55% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Denver Broncos commit fewer turnovers in 68% of simulations and they go on to win 57% when they take care of the ball. The New England Patriots wins 82% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Peyton Manning is averaging 288 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (39% chance) then he helps his team win 51%. Tom Brady is averaging 284 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 62%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Denver BroncosATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games12-6-0All Games9-9-0Denver Broncos
Road Games5-3-0Home Games7-2-0New England Patriots
When Favored12-6-0When Underdog3-3-0Denver Broncos
Non-Division Opp7-4-0Non-Division Opp7-5-0Denver Broncos
Opp .500+ Record4-3-0Opp .500+ Record3-5-0Denver Broncos

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Denver BroncosATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games10-6-0All Games9-7-0Denver Broncos
Road Games5-3-0Home Games4-4-0Denver Broncos
When Favored9-3-0When Underdog1-0-0New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp6-4-0Non-Division Opp6-4-0No Edge
Opp .500+ Record2-4-0Opp .500+ Record5-4-0New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Denver BroncosO-U-P RECORDNew England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)11-7-0All Totals (O-U-P)10-8-0OVER
On Road5-3-0At Home6-3-0OVER
All Totals Last Season11-5-0All Totals Last Season12-4-0OVER
On Road Last Season5-3-0At Home Last Season7-1-0OVER

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