Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers 11/19/2012
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Expect a close game with the Chicago Bears winning 46% of simulations, and the San Francisco 49ers 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Chicago Bears commit fewer turnovers in 36% of simulations and they go on to win 76% when they take care of the ball. The San Francisco 49ers wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Forte is averaging 46 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (15% chance) then he helps his team win 77%. Frank Gore is averaging 77 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 77%.
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Chicago Bears | ATS RECORD | San Francisco 49ers | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 5-4-0 | All Games | 5-3-0 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Road Games | 3-1-0 | Home Games | 2-2-0 | Chicago Bears |
| When Underdog | 1-1-0 | When Favored | 4-3-0 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Non-Division Opp | 5-2-0 | Non-Division Opp | 4-2-0 | Chicago Bears |
| Opp .500+ Record | 2-1-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 4-3-0 | Chicago Bears |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| Chicago Bears | ATS RECORD | San Francisco 49ers | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 8-8-0 | All Games | 12-3-1 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Road Games | 4-4-0 | Home Games | 7-0-0 | San Francisco 49ers |
| When Underdog | 4-5-0 | When Favored | 9-2-0 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Non-Division Opp | 5-5-0 | Non-Division Opp | 8-1-1 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Opp .500+ Record | 3-3-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 6-1-0 | San Francisco 49ers |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Chicago Bears | O-U-P RECORD | San Francisco 49ers | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 5-4-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 2-6-0 | UNDER |
| On Road | 3-1-0 | At Home | 1-3-0 | No Edge |
| All Totals Last Season | 9-7-0 | All Totals Last Season | 7-9-0 | No Edge |
| On Road Last Season | 3-5-0 | At Home Last Season | 4-4-0 | UNDER |
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