November 19, 2012 6:37 PM UTC

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers 11/19/2012

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Expect a close game with the Chicago Bears winning 46% of simulations, and the San Francisco 49ers 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Chicago Bears commit fewer turnovers in 36% of simulations and they go on to win 76% when they take care of the ball. The San Francisco 49ers wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Forte is averaging 46 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (15% chance) then he helps his team win 77%. Frank Gore is averaging 77 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 77%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Chicago BearsATS RECORDSan Francisco 49ersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games5-4-0All Games5-3-0San Francisco 49ers
Road Games3-1-0Home Games2-2-0Chicago Bears
When Underdog1-1-0When Favored4-3-0San Francisco 49ers
Non-Division Opp5-2-0Non-Division Opp4-2-0Chicago Bears
Opp .500+ Record2-1-0Opp .500+ Record4-3-0Chicago Bears

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Chicago BearsATS RECORDSan Francisco 49ersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-8-0All Games12-3-1San Francisco 49ers
Road Games4-4-0Home Games7-0-0San Francisco 49ers
When Underdog4-5-0When Favored9-2-0San Francisco 49ers
Non-Division Opp5-5-0Non-Division Opp8-1-1San Francisco 49ers
Opp .500+ Record3-3-0Opp .500+ Record6-1-0San Francisco 49ers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Chicago BearsO-U-P RECORDSan Francisco 49ersO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)5-4-0All Totals (O-U-P)2-6-0UNDER
On Road3-1-0At Home1-3-0No Edge
All Totals Last Season9-7-0All Totals Last Season7-9-0No Edge
On Road Last Season3-5-0At Home Last Season4-4-0UNDER

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