February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers 11/18/2013

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Expect a close game with the New England Patriots winning 53% of simulations, and the Carolina Panthers 47% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 41% of simulations and they go on to win 78% when they take care of the ball. The Carolina Panthers wins 65% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Tom Brady is averaging 255 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (37% chance) then he helps his team win 65%. Cam Newton is averaging 52 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 67%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDCarolina PanthersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-9-0All Games9-7-1Carolina Panthers
Road Games2-7-0Home Games6-2-0Carolina Panthers
When Underdog3-3-0When Favored7-4-1Carolina Panthers
Non-Division Opp7-5-0Non-Division Opp5-5-1New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record3-5-0Opp .500+ Record3-3-0Carolina Panthers

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDCarolina PanthersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-7-0All Games9-7-0No Edge
Road Games5-3-0Home Games3-5-0New England Patriots
When Underdog1-0-0When Favored2-4-0New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp6-4-0Non-Division Opp5-5-0New England Patriots
Opp Under .5002-2-0Opp .500+ Record3-4-0New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDCarolina PanthersO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)10-8-0All Totals (O-U-P)5-12-0UNDER
On Road4-5-0At Home2-7-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season12-4-0All Totals Last Season8-7-1OVER
On Road Last Season5-3-0At Home Last Season3-4-1OVER

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