November 19, 2012 6:37 PM UTC

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots 11/18/2012

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The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 79% of simulations over the Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady is averaging 287 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 103 rushing yards and a 50% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 21% of simulations where Indianapolis Colts wins, Andrew Luck averages 1.89 TD passes vs 0.57 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.34 TDs to 1.2 interceptions. Donald Brown averages 53 rushing yards and 0.43 rushing TDs when Indianapolis Colts wins and 34 yards and 0.16 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 68% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 88% of the time.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Indianapolis ColtsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-4-0All Games6-4-0Indianapolis Colts
Road Games2-3-0Home Games2-3-0No Edge
When Underdog4-3-0When Favored5-4-0Indianapolis Colts
Non-Division Opp4-3-0Non-Division Opp5-2-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record3-1-0Opp .500+ Record4-3-0Indianapolis Colts

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Indianapolis ColtsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-10-0All Games9-7-0New England Patriots
Road Games3-5-0Home Games4-4-0New England Patriots
When Underdog6-9-0When Favored8-7-0New England Patriots
Non-Division Opp4-6-0Non-Division Opp5-5-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record5-4-0Opp Under .5002-2-0Indianapolis Colts

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Indianapolis ColtsO-U-P RECORDNew England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)3-6-1All Totals (O-U-P)8-2-0OVER
On Road2-2-1At Home4-1-0OVER
All Totals Last Season7-9-0All Totals Last Season11-5-0OVER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season5-3-0OVER

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