November 19, 2012 6:37 PM UTC

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers 11/18/2012

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Expect a close game with the Baltimore Ravens winning 51% of simulations, and the Pittsburgh Steelers 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Baltimore Ravens commit fewer turnovers in 46% of simulations and they go on to win 74% when they take care of the ball. The Pittsburgh Steelers wins 69% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Ray Rice is averaging 61 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (25% chance) then he helps his team win 79%. Rashard Mendenhall is averaging 58 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 72%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Baltimore RavensATS RECORDPittsburgh SteelersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games4-5-1All Games4-5-1No Edge
Road Games2-2-1Home Games2-2-0No Edge
When Favored3-4-1When Underdog2-1-1Pittsburgh Steelers
Division Opp2-1-1Division Opp1-0-1Pittsburgh Steelers
Opp .500+ Record1-3-1Opp .500+ Record3-1-1Pittsburgh Steelers

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Baltimore RavensATS RECORDPittsburgh SteelersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-7-1All Games7-10-0Baltimore Ravens
Road Games4-4-0Home Games5-3-0Pittsburgh Steelers
When Favored7-7-1When Underdog1-3-0Baltimore Ravens
Division Opp4-1-1Division Opp2-4-0Baltimore Ravens
Opp .500+ Record4-0-1Opp .500+ Record4-3-0Baltimore Ravens

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Baltimore RavensO-U-P RECORDPittsburgh SteelersO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)6-4-0All Totals (O-U-P)3-7-0UNDER
On Road2-3-0At Home0-5-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season9-7-0All Totals Last Season6-10-0UNDER
On Road Last Season5-3-0At Home Last Season2-6-0UNDER

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