February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

San Diego Chargers vs Miami Dolphins 11/17/2013

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Expect a close game with the San Diego Chargers winning 43% of simulations, and the Miami Dolphins 57% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The San Diego Chargers commit fewer turnovers in 42% of simulations and they go on to win 68% when they take care of the ball. The Miami Dolphins wins 77% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Philip Rivers is averaging 295 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (30% chance) then he helps his team win 56%. Ryan Tannehill is averaging 268 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (44% chance) then he helps his team win 64%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

San Diego ChargersATS RECORDMiami DolphinsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games11-6-1All Games9-7-0San Diego Chargers
Road Games6-3-1Home Games5-3-0San Diego Chargers
When Favored3-5-0When Underdog7-2-0Miami Dolphins
Non-Division Opp7-3-1Non-Division Opp7-3-0Miami Dolphins
Opp .500+ Record5-2-1Opp Under .5003-2-0San Diego Chargers

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

San Diego ChargersATS RECORDMiami DolphinsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games7-9-0All Games8-8-0Miami Dolphins
Road Games5-3-0Home Games5-3-0No Edge
When Favored3-5-0When Underdog6-5-0Miami Dolphins
Non-Division Opp3-7-0Non-Division Opp5-5-0Miami Dolphins
Opp Under .5003-4-0Opp Under .5003-2-0Miami Dolphins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

San Diego ChargersO-U-P RECORDMiami DolphinsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)7-11-0All Totals (O-U-P)6-9-1UNDER
On Road3-7-0At Home3-5-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season10-6-0All Totals Last Season7-9-0OVER
On Road Last Season6-2-0At Home Last Season3-5-0OVER

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