November 19, 2012 6:37 PM UTC

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills 11/15/2012

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Expect a close game with the Miami Dolphins winning 47% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Miami Dolphins commit fewer turnovers in 46% of simulations and they go on to win 72% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 75% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Reggie Bush is averaging 62 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (24% chance) then he helps his team win 71%. C.J. Spiller is averaging 73 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 75%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Miami DolphinsATS RECORDBuffalo BillsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games4-6-0All Games5-5-0Buffalo Bills
Road Games3-3-0Home Games2-2-0No Edge
When Underdog4-3-0When Favored3-1-0Buffalo Bills
Division Opp1-2-0Division Opp2-2-0Buffalo Bills
Opp Under .5002-2-0Opp Under .5003-2-0Buffalo Bills

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Miami DolphinsATS RECORDBuffalo BillsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-7-0All Games6-9-1Miami Dolphins
Road Games6-2-0Home Games4-4-1Miami Dolphins
When Underdog5-5-0When Favored2-4-0Miami Dolphins
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp2-4-0Miami Dolphins
Opp Under .5002-3-0Opp Under .5001-4-0Miami Dolphins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Miami DolphinsO-U-P RECORDBuffalo BillsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)4-6-0All Totals (O-U-P)6-4-0OVER
On Road2-4-0At Home3-1-0OVER
All Totals Last Season4-11-1All Totals Last Season10-5-1UNDER
On Road Last Season2-6-0At Home Last Season5-3-0UNDER

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