November 12, 2012 3:50 PM UTC

San Diego Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11/11/2012

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Expect a close game with the San Diego Chargers winning 52% of simulations, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The San Diego Chargers commit fewer turnovers in 43% of simulations and they go on to win 80% when they take care of the ball. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins 70% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Philip Rivers is averaging 285 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (27% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. Doug Martin is averaging 100 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (38% chance) then he helps his team win 70%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

San Diego ChargersATS RECORDTampa Bay BuccaneersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games4-5-0All Games7-2-0Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Road Games2-3-0Home Games3-2-0Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When Underdog1-2-0When Favored2-1-0Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Non-Division Opp1-4-0Non-Division Opp6-1-0Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opp .500+ Record0-2-0Opp Under .5003-2-0Tampa Bay Buccaneers

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

San Diego ChargersATS RECORDTampa Bay BuccaneersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-10-0All Games4-12-0San Diego Chargers
Road Games3-5-0Home Games2-6-0San Diego Chargers
When Underdog2-5-0When Favored1-3-0San Diego Chargers
Non-Division Opp4-6-0Non-Division Opp2-8-0San Diego Chargers
Opp Under .5004-1-0Opp .500+ Record3-6-0San Diego Chargers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

San Diego ChargersO-U-P RECORDTampa Bay BuccaneersO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)6-3-0All Totals (O-U-P)6-2-1OVER
On Road3-2-0At Home3-1-1OVER
All Totals Last Season8-8-0All Totals Last Season10-6-0OVER
On Road Last Season6-2-0At Home Last Season4-4-0OVER

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