November 12, 2012 3:50 PM UTC

Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears 11/11/2012

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Expect a close game with the Houston Texans winning 41% of simulations, and the Chicago Bears 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Houston Texans commit fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations and they go on to win 70% when they take care of the ball. The Chicago Bears wins 78% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Arian Foster is averaging 90 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (34% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. Matt Forte is averaging 80 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (28% chance) then he helps his team win 79%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Houston TexansATS RECORDChicago BearsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games7-2-0All Games5-4-0Houston Texans
Road Games3-1-0Home Games2-3-0Houston Texans
When Underdog1-0-0When Favored4-3-0Houston Texans
Non-Division Opp5-2-0Non-Division Opp5-2-0Chicago Bears
Opp .500+ Record3-1-0Opp .500+ Record2-1-0Houston Texans

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Houston TexansATS RECORDChicago BearsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games10-6-1All Games8-8-0Houston Texans
Road Games5-3-0Home Games4-4-0Houston Texans
When Underdog3-2-1When Favored4-3-0Houston Texans
Non-Division Opp6-5-0Non-Division Opp5-5-0Houston Texans
Opp .500+ Record5-3-0Opp .500+ Record3-3-0Houston Texans

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Houston TexansO-U-P RECORDChicago BearsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)4-4-1All Totals (O-U-P)5-4-0OVER
On Road1-2-1At Home2-3-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season6-10-0All Totals Last Season9-7-0UNDER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season6-2-0OVER

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