November 12, 2012 3:50 PM UTC

Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers 11/11/2012

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Expect a close game with the Denver Broncos winning 57% of simulations, and the Carolina Panthers 42% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Denver Broncos commit fewer turnovers in 58% of simulations and they go on to win 77% when they take care of the ball. The Carolina Panthers wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Peyton Manning is averaging 264 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (37% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. Cam Newton is averaging 59 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (36% chance) then he helps his team win 62%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Denver BroncosATS RECORDCarolina PanthersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-3-0All Games4-5-0Denver Broncos
Road Games3-2-0Home Games1-4-0Denver Broncos
When Favored5-0-0When Underdog4-2-0Denver Broncos
Non-Division Opp4-3-0Non-Division Opp2-4-0Denver Broncos
Opp Under .5004-0-0Opp .500+ Record2-3-0Denver Broncos

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Denver BroncosATS RECORDCarolina PanthersATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-9-0All Games9-7-0Carolina Panthers
Road Games6-2-0Home Games5-3-0Denver Broncos
When Favored1-5-0When Underdog4-5-0Carolina Panthers
Non-Division Opp5-6-0Non-Division Opp6-4-0Carolina Panthers
Opp Under .5003-0-0Opp .500+ Record5-3-0Denver Broncos

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Denver BroncosO-U-P RECORDCarolina PanthersO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)6-3-0All Totals (O-U-P)4-5-0OVER
On Road4-1-0At Home2-3-0OVER
All Totals Last Season9-7-0All Totals Last Season10-6-0OVER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season5-3-0OVER

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