November 12, 2012 3:50 PM UTC

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots 11/11/2012

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The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 80% of simulations over the Buffalo Bills. Tom Brady is averaging 291 passing yards and 2.5 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 94 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 20% of simulations where Buffalo Bills wins, Ryan Fitzpatrick averages 2.31 TD passes vs 0.86 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.59 TDs to 1.6 interceptions. C.J. Spiller averages 65 rushing yards and 0.48 rushing TDs when Buffalo Bills wins and 41 yards and 0.21 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 60% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 91% of the time.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Buffalo BillsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games4-5-0All Games5-4-0New England Patriots
Road Games3-3-0Home Games1-3-0Buffalo Bills
When Underdog2-4-0When Favored4-4-0New England Patriots
Division Opp1-2-0Division Opp1-2-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record2-2-0Opp Under .5001-1-0New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Buffalo BillsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-9-1All Games9-7-0New England Patriots
Road Games2-5-1Home Games4-4-0New England Patriots
When Underdog4-5-1When Favored8-7-0New England Patriots
Division Opp2-4-0Division Opp4-2-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record3-4-1Opp Under .5002-2-0New England Patriots

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Buffalo BillsO-U-P RECORDNew England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)6-3-0All Totals (O-U-P)7-2-0OVER
On Road3-3-0At Home3-1-0OVER
All Totals Last Season10-5-1All Totals Last Season11-5-0OVER
On Road Last Season5-2-1At Home Last Season5-3-0OVER

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