November 12, 2012 3:50 PM UTC

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints 11/11/2012

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Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 47% of simulations, and the New Orleans Saints 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 53% of simulations and they go on to win 65% when they take care of the ball. The New Orleans Saints wins 74% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 307 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (42% chance) then he helps his team win 46%. Drew Brees is averaging 354 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 64%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Atlanta FalconsATS RECORDNew Orleans SaintsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-3-0All Games5-4-0Atlanta Falcons
Road Games4-1-0Home Games3-2-0Atlanta Falcons
When Favored4-3-0When Underdog2-1-0New Orleans Saints
Division Opp0-2-0Division Opp2-1-0New Orleans Saints
Opp Under .5001-3-0Opp .500+ Record2-1-0New Orleans Saints

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Atlanta FalconsATS RECORDNew Orleans SaintsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-8-0All Games12-5-0New Orleans Saints
Road Games4-5-0Home Games8-1-0New Orleans Saints
When Favored6-5-0When Underdog1-1-0Atlanta Falcons
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp4-2-0New Orleans Saints
Opp .500+ Record2-5-0Opp .500+ Record7-1-0New Orleans Saints

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Atlanta FalconsO-U-P RECORDNew Orleans SaintsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)4-5-0All Totals (O-U-P)6-3-0OVER
On Road3-2-0At Home3-2-0OVER
All Totals Last Season7-9-0All Totals Last Season9-7-0No Edge
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season5-3-0OVER

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