Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints 11/11/2012
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Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 47% of simulations, and the New Orleans Saints 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 53% of simulations and they go on to win 65% when they take care of the ball. The New Orleans Saints wins 74% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 307 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (42% chance) then he helps his team win 46%. Drew Brees is averaging 354 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (36% chance) then he helps his team win 64%.
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Atlanta Falcons | ATS RECORD | New Orleans Saints | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 6-3-0 | All Games | 5-4-0 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Road Games | 4-1-0 | Home Games | 3-2-0 | Atlanta Falcons |
| When Favored | 4-3-0 | When Underdog | 2-1-0 | New Orleans Saints |
| Division Opp | 0-2-0 | Division Opp | 2-1-0 | New Orleans Saints |
| Opp Under .500 | 1-3-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 2-1-0 | New Orleans Saints |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| Atlanta Falcons | ATS RECORD | New Orleans Saints | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 9-8-0 | All Games | 12-5-0 | New Orleans Saints |
| Road Games | 4-5-0 | Home Games | 8-1-0 | New Orleans Saints |
| When Favored | 6-5-0 | When Underdog | 1-1-0 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Division Opp | 3-3-0 | Division Opp | 4-2-0 | New Orleans Saints |
| Opp .500+ Record | 2-5-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 7-1-0 | New Orleans Saints |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Atlanta Falcons | O-U-P RECORD | New Orleans Saints | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 4-5-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 6-3-0 | OVER |
| On Road | 3-2-0 | At Home | 3-2-0 | OVER |
| All Totals Last Season | 7-9-0 | All Totals Last Season | 9-7-0 | No Edge |
| On Road Last Season | 4-4-0 | At Home Last Season | 5-3-0 | OVER |
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