February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots 10/27/2013

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Expect a close game with the Miami Dolphins winning 43% of simulations, and the New England Patriots 57% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Miami Dolphins commit fewer turnovers in 45% of simulations and they go on to win 65% when they take care of the ball. The New England Patriots wins 76% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Lamar Miller is averaging 43 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (15% chance) then he helps his team win 69%. Tom Brady is averaging 270 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (35% chance) then he helps his team win 66%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Miami DolphinsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-7-0All Games9-9-0Miami Dolphins
Road Games4-4-0Home Games7-2-0New England Patriots
When Underdog7-2-0When Favored6-6-0Miami Dolphins
Division Opp2-4-0Division Opp2-4-0Miami Dolphins
Opp .500+ Record5-3-0Opp .500+ Record3-5-0Miami Dolphins

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Miami DolphinsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-8-0All Games9-7-0New England Patriots
Road Games3-5-0Home Games4-4-0New England Patriots
When Underdog6-5-0When Favored8-7-0Miami Dolphins
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp3-3-0No Edge
Opp .500+ Record4-4-0Opp Under .5002-2-0No Edge

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Miami DolphinsO-U-P RECORDNew England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)6-9-1All Totals (O-U-P)10-8-0UNDER
On Road3-4-1At Home6-3-0OVER
All Totals Last Season7-9-0All Totals Last Season12-4-0OVER
On Road Last Season4-4-0At Home Last Season7-1-0OVER

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