February 02, 2014 5:06 AM UTC

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots 1/11/2014

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Expect a close game with the Indianapolis Colts winning 42% of simulations, and the New England Patriots 57% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Indianapolis Colts commit fewer turnovers in 54% of simulations and they go on to win 63% when they take care of the ball. The New England Patriots wins 83% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Andrew Luck is averaging 255 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (43% chance) then he helps his team win 50%. LeGarrette Blount is averaging 91 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (37% chance) then he helps his team win 80%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Indianapolis ColtsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-8-1All Games9-9-0Indianapolis Colts
Road Games4-4-1Home Games7-2-0New England Patriots
When Underdog4-3-0When Favored6-6-0Indianapolis Colts
Non-Division Opp4-8-0Non-Division Opp7-5-0New England Patriots
Opp .500+ Record3-3-0Opp .500+ Record3-5-0Indianapolis Colts

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Indianapolis ColtsATS RECORDNew England PatriotsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games11-5-0All Games9-7-0Indianapolis Colts
Road Games4-4-0Home Games4-4-0No Edge
When Underdog6-4-0When Favored8-7-0Indianapolis Colts
Non-Division Opp7-3-0Non-Division Opp6-4-0Indianapolis Colts
Opp .500+ Record3-2-0Opp .500+ Record5-4-0Indianapolis Colts

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Indianapolis ColtsO-U-P RECORDNew England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)10-8-0All Totals (O-U-P)10-8-0OVER
On Road5-4-0At Home6-3-0OVER
All Totals Last Season6-9-1All Totals Last Season12-4-0OVER
On Road Last Season3-4-1At Home Last Season7-1-0OVER

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