August 18, 2012 2:06 PM UTC

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals 8/18/2012

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The St. Louis Cardinals are 36-25 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 29-30 on the road this season. The Cardinals have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cardinals\' starter Lance Lynn is forecasted to have a better game than Pirates\' starter Erik Bedard. Lance Lynn has a 49% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Erik Bedard has a 32% chance of a QS. If Lance Lynn has a quality start the Cardinals has a 81% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.3 and he has a 27% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 72%. In Erik Bedard quality starts the Pirates win 53%. He has a 10% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 53% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Allen Craig who averaged 2.61 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 75% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Andrew McCutchen who averaged 2.24 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 38% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 50% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh PiratesRECORDSt. Louis CardinalsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road29-30, 49% 634Record at Home36-25, 59% 72Pittsburgh Pirates
VS St. Louis Cardinals5-5, 50% 266VS Pittsburgh Pirates5-5, 50% -170Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Team .500 or Better27-33, 45% 112vs Team .500 or Better24-26, 48% -588Pittsburgh Pirates
Record As Road Underdog22-28, 44% 298Record As Home Favorite35-24, 59% -4Pittsburgh Pirates
When Erik Bedard Starts9-13, 41% -427When Lance Lynn Starts15-8, 65% 411St. Louis Cardinals

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh PiratesRECORDSt. Louis CardinalsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road7-4, 64% 226Record at Home13-5, 72% 412St. Louis Cardinals
VS St. Louis Cardinals1-0, 100% 144VS Pittsburgh Pirates0-1, 0% -100Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Team .500 or Better6-9, 40% -266vs Team Under .5009-3, 75% 298St. Louis Cardinals
Record As Road Underdog3-2, 60% 157Record As Home Favorite13-5, 72% 412St. Louis Cardinals
When Erik Bedard Starts2-2, 50% -32When Lance Lynn Starts2-3, 40% -186Pittsburgh Pirates

OVER-UNDER TRENDS: This game is trending Over

Pittsburgh PiratesRECORDSt. Louis CardinalsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD30-25, 55% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME29-30, 49% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS4-5, 44% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS7-11, 39% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON39-37, 51% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON42-43, 49% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Erik Bedard STARTS9-12, 43% OverOVER-UNDER IN Lance Lynn STARTS13-10, 57% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Pittsburgh Pirates Road Games: 31-28, 53% +27 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 28-33, 46% -720 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Pittsburgh Pirates Road Games: 8-3, 73% +203 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 8-10, 44% -426

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Pittsburgh Pirates Road Games: 34-25, 58% -56 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 32-29, 52% -623 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Pittsburgh Pirates Road Games: 7-4, 64% +170 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 12-6, 67% +236

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Pittsburgh Pirates Road Games: 24-28, 46% -680 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 36-17, 68% + 1730 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Pittsburgh Pirates Road Games: 4-4, 50% -40 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 11-5, 69% + 550

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