Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres 7/6/2012
| AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview |
The Cincinnati Reds are 21-22 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the San Diego Padres who are 17-24 at home. The Reds have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Reds\' starter Bronson Arroyo is forecasted to have a better game than Reds\' starter Kip Wells. Bronson Arroyo has a 54% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Kip Wells has a 48% chance of a QS. If Bronson Arroyo has a quality start the Reds has a 67% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 6.4 and he has a 45% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 61%. In Kip Wells quality starts the Padres win 59%. He has a 4% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 59% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Carlos Quentin who averaged 1.98 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 31% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 57% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Joey Votto who averaged 2.76 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 49% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 71% chance of winning.
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Cincinnati Reds
| Cincinnati Reds | RECORD | San Diego Padres | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record on the Road | 21-22, 49% -1 | Record at Home | 17-24, 41% -586 | Cincinnati Reds |
| VS San Diego Padres | 0-1, 0% -100 | VS Cincinnati Reds | 1-0, 100% 124 | San Diego Padres |
| vs Team Under .500 | 17-13, 57% -19 | vs Team .500 or Better | 10-24, 29% -1228 | Cincinnati Reds |
| Record as Road Favorite | 9-10, 47% -303 | Record as Home Underdog | 11-19, 37% -619 | Cincinnati Reds |
| When Bronson Arroyo Starts | 8-8, 50% -9 | When Kip Wells Starts | 1-1, 50% 38 | San Diego Padres |
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: San Diego Padres
| Cincinnati Reds | RECORD | San Diego Padres | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record on the Road | 6-8, 43% -192 | Record at Home | 3-6, 33% -296 | Cincinnati Reds |
| VS San Diego Padres | 0-1, 0% -100 | VS Cincinnati Reds | 1-0, 100% 124 | San Diego Padres |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 13-12, 52% -157 | vs Team .500 or Better | 6-9, 40% -79 | San Diego Padres |
| Record as Road Favorite | 2-4, 33% -247 | Record as Home Underdog | 1-6, 14% -476 | Cincinnati Reds |
| When Bronson Arroyo Starts | 2-3, 40% -123 | When Kip Wells Starts | 1-1, 50% 38 | San Diego Padres |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS: This game is trending Under
| Cincinnati Reds | RECORD | San Diego Padres | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 15-26, 37% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 18-22, 45% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 3-10, 23% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 4-5, 44% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 40-40, 50% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 40-37, 52% Over | UNDER |
| OVER-UNDER IN Bronson Arroyo STARTS | 4-11, 27% Over | OVER-UNDER IN Kip Wells STARTS | 0-2, 0% Over | N/A |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 18-25, 42% -831 San Diego Padres Home Games: 25-16, 61% +572 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 6-8, 43% -361 San Diego Padres Home Games: 7-2, 78% +304
MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 19-24, 44% -670 San Diego Padres Home Games: 24-17, 59% +246 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 6-8, 43% -255 San Diego Padres Home Games: 7-2, 78% +304
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 16-15, 52% -50 San Diego Padres Home Games: 18-20, 47% -400 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 6-3, 67% + 270 San Diego Padres Home Games: 3-4, 43% -140
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