July 31, 2013 5:28 PM UTC

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7/31/2013

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are 35-18 at home this season and the St. Louis Cardinals are 30-26 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Pirates\' starter Jeff Locke is forecasted to have a better game than Cardinals\' starter Adam Wainwright. Jeff Locke has a 62% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Adam Wainwright has a 55% chance of a QS. If Jeff Locke has a quality start the Pirates has a 67% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.1 and he has a 17% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Pirates win 63%. In Adam Wainwright quality starts the Cardinals win 55%. He has a 47% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 55% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Andrew McCutchen who averaged 1.96 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 31% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 68% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Allen Craig who averaged 1.89 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 28% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 64% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis CardinalsRECORDPittsburgh PiratesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road30-26, 54% 203Record at Home35-18, 66% 1194Pittsburgh Pirates
VS Pittsburgh Pirates2-6, 25% -461VS St. Louis Cardinals6-2, 75% 434Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Team .500 or Better17-23, 42% -840vs Team .500 or Better24-20, 55% 869Pittsburgh Pirates
Record as Road Favorite18-17, 51% -239Record as Home Underdog12-8, 60% 623Pittsburgh Pirates
When Adam Wainwright Starts15-7, 68% 447When Jeff Locke Starts11-9, 55% 291St. Louis Cardinals

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis CardinalsRECORDPittsburgh PiratesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road3-10, 23% -749Record at Home7-5, 58% 13Pittsburgh Pirates
VS Pittsburgh Pirates0-3, 0% -300VS St. Louis Cardinals3-0, 100% 243Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Team .500 or Better2-8, 20% -645vs Team .500 or Better8-7, 53% -37Pittsburgh Pirates
Record as Road Favorite2-6, 25% -445Record as Home Underdog1-0, 100% 110Pittsburgh Pirates
When Adam Wainwright Starts3-2, 60% -45When Jeff Locke Starts2-2, 50% 4Pittsburgh Pirates

OVER-UNDER TRENDS: This game is trending Under

St. Louis CardinalsRECORDPittsburgh PiratesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD28-26, 52% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME19-33, 37% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-8, 38% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-9, 25% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON44-43, 51% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON29-50, 37% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Adam Wainwright STARTS11-10, 52% OverOVER-UNDER IN Jeff Locke STARTS7-13, 35% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - St. Louis Cardinals Road Games: 18-38, 32% -2540 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 25-28, 47% -520 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - St. Louis Cardinals Road Games: 4-9, 31% -555 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 5-7, 42% -152

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - St. Louis Cardinals Road Games: 22-34, 39% -1488 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 31-22, 58% +128 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - St. Louis Cardinals Road Games: 7-6, 54% -3 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 8-4, 67% +216

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - St. Louis Cardinals Road Games: 27-21, 56% + 390 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 32-18, 64% + 1220 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - St. Louis Cardinals Road Games: 8-3, 73% + 470 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 9-3, 75% + 570

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