San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds 7/31/2012
| AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview |
The Cincinnati Reds are 31-19 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the San Diego Padres who are 22-31 on the road this season. The Reds have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Reds\' starter Homer Bailey is forecasted to have a better game than Padres\' starter Jason Marquis. Homer Bailey has a 60% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Jason Marquis has a 42% chance of a QS. If Homer Bailey has a quality start the Reds has a 79% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 7.1 and he has a 53% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 70%. In Jason Marquis quality starts the Padres win 50%. He has a 30% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 50% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Brandon Phillips who averaged 2.45 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 77% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Carlos Quentin who averaged 1.98 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 32% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 50% chance of winning.
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Cincinnati Reds
| San Diego Padres | RECORD | Cincinnati Reds | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record on the Road | 22-31, 42% -121 | Record at Home | 31-19, 62% 474 | Cincinnati Reds |
| VS Cincinnati Reds | 2-3, 40% -40 | VS San Diego Padres | 3-2, 60% 44 | Cincinnati Reds |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 19-33, 37% -933 | vs Team Under .500 | 35-16, 69% 1161 | Cincinnati Reds |
| Record As Road Underdog | 21-30, 41% -109 | Record As Home Favorite | 27-15, 64% 468 | Cincinnati Reds |
| When Jason Marquis Starts | 7-10, 41% 29 | When Homer Bailey Starts | 12-8, 60% 317 | Cincinnati Reds |
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: San Diego Padres
| San Diego Padres | RECORD | Cincinnati Reds | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record on the Road | 9-5, 64% 785 | Record at Home | 8-3, 73% 346 | San Diego Padres |
| VS Cincinnati Reds | 2-3, 40% -40 | VS San Diego Padres | 3-2, 60% 44 | Cincinnati Reds |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 7-4, 64% 567 | vs Team .500 or Better | 9-6, 60% 136 | San Diego Padres |
| Record As Road Underdog | 9-5, 64% 785 | Record As Home Favorite | 8-3, 73% 346 | San Diego Padres |
| When Jason Marquis Starts | 4-1, 80% 485 | When Homer Bailey Starts | 5-0, 100% 429 | San Diego Padres |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS: This game is trending Over
| San Diego Padres | RECORD | Cincinnati Reds | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 30-20, 60% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 20-26, 43% Over | OVER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 8-5, 62% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 2-6, 25% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 40-38, 51% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 45-31, 59% Over | UNDER |
| OVER-UNDER IN Jason Marquis STARTS | 11-6, 65% Over | OVER-UNDER IN Homer Bailey STARTS | 11-8, 58% Over | N/A |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 31-22, 58% +1954 Cincinnati Reds Home Games: 24-26, 48% -479 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 5-9, 36% -59 Cincinnati Reds Home Games: 4-7, 36% -292
MONEY LINE (Current Season) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 32-21, 60% +168 Cincinnati Reds Home Games: 29-21, 58% +222 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 6-8, 43% -347 Cincinnati Reds Home Games: 4-7, 36% -292
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 27-19, 59% + 610 Cincinnati Reds Home Games: 21-18, 54% + 120 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 7-6, 54% + 40 Cincinnati Reds Home Games: 6-1, 86% + 490
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