April 13, 2013 9:42 AM UTC

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox 4/13/2013

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The Boston Red Sox are 1-2 at home this season and the Tampa Bay Rays are 1-1 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Jon Lester has a 58% chance of a QS and David Price a 56% chance. If Jon Lester has a quality start the Red Sox has a 68% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.3 and he has a 18% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 57%. If David Price has a quality start the Rays has a 65% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3 and he has a 24% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Rays win 53%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Dustin Pedroia who averaged 1.84 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 27% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 66% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Tampa Bay Rays is Evan Longoria who averaged 2.15 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 36% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Rays have a 64% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. NEITHER TEAM HAS UNITS EDGE

Tampa Bay RaysRECORDBoston Red SoxRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road1-1, 50% 23Record at Home1-2, 33% -128Tampa Bay Rays
VS Boston Red Sox0-0 No GamesVS Tampa Bay Rays0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better2-3, 40% -99vs Team .500 or Better3-3, 50% -8Boston Red Sox
Record As Road Underdog1-1, 50% 23Record As Home Favorite1-2, 33% -128Tampa Bay Rays
When David Price Starts0-2, 0% -200When Jon Lester Starts2-0, 100% 235Boston Red Sox

LAST SEASON: We advise focusing on these trends in the first month of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay RaysRECORDBoston Red SoxRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road44-37, 54% 1090Record at Home34-47, 42% -1876Tampa Bay Rays
VS Boston Red Sox9-9, 50% -147VS Tampa Bay Rays9-9, 50% 85Boston Red Sox
vs Team Under .50045-30, 60% 486vs Team .500 or Better37-67, 36% -2944Tampa Bay Rays
Record As Road Underdog29-20, 59% 1655Record As Home Favorite28-32, 47% -1129Tampa Bay Rays
When David Price Starts0-0 No GamesWhen Jon Lester Starts0-0 No GamesN/A

OVER-UNDER TRENDS: This game is trending Under

Tampa Bay RaysRECORDBoston Red SoxRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD0-1, 0% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME1-2, 33% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS0-1, 0% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS1-2, 33% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON34-42, 45% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON41-34, 55% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN David Price STARTS2-0, 100% OverOVER-UNDER IN Jon Lester STARTS2-0, 100% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 1-1, 50% -34 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 2-1, 67% +141 SIDE VALUE (Last Season) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 40-41, 49% -358 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 41-40, 51% +697

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 1-1, 50% -34 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 1-2, 33% -128 MONEY LINE (Last Season) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 38-43, 47% -1074 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 34-47, 42% -1810

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 1-0, 100% + 100 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 2-1, 67% + 90 OVER-UNDER RECORD (LAST SEASON) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 34-28, 55% + 320 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 34-36, 49% -560

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