Roma @ Cagliari 9/23/2012
AccuScore.com, the leader in sports forecasting, has simulated this game thousands of times one play at a time and the game forecast below is based on these simulations.
There is a 25.9% chance of a draw. In simulations where the game is not a draw Roma, at 45.9%, are heavy favorites to beat Cagliari who have just a 28.1% chance to win at home. Overall, the average simulation score is Roma 1.9 to Cagliari 1.4. In simulation wins, Cagliari upsets Roma by averaging 12 shots and 4.9 shots on goal. They average 2.5 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.8 in simulation losses.
The leading goal scorer for Roma is Pablo Osvaldo with a 50% chance of scoring 1 or more goals. When he has at least one goal Roma has a 62% chance to win. The leading goal scorer for Cagliari is Mauricio Pinilla with a 36% chance of scoring 1 or more goals. When he has at least one goal Cagliari has a 44% chance to win.
LINES: Roma +2.21 --- Cagliari +3.47 --- DRAW +3.58 --- TEAM RECORDS (W-L-D-Pts) Roma Road Record: 1-0-0-3, Road Record in '10-11: 6-10-3-21, Cagliari Home Record: 0-0-1-1, Home Record in '10-11: 7-4-8-29
| Roma | Trends | Cagliari | Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Games (Win-Loss-Draw) | W-L-D: 1-1-1 | All Games (Win-Loss-Draw) | W-L-D: 0-1-2 |
| Road Games (W-L-D) | W-L-D: 1-0-0 | Home Games (W-L-D) | W-L-D: 0-0-1 |
| vs OPP (W-L-D) | W-L-D: 0-0-0 | vs OPP (W-L-D) | W-L-D: 0-0-0 |
| Win by 2 or More | 1 of 3 games 33.3% | Win by 2 or More | 0 of 3 games 0% |
| Lose by 2 or More | 0 of 3 games 0% | Lose by 2 or More | 1 of 3 games 33.3% |
| When Favored | W-L-D: 0-1-1 | When Favored | W-L-D: 0-0-1 |
| Road Favorite | W-L-D: 0-0-0 | Home Favorite | W-L-D: 0-0-1 |
| All Games 10-11 | W-L-D: 19-11-8 | All Games 10-11 | W-L-D: 12-17-9 |
| Road 10-11 | W-L-D: 7-8-4 | Home 10-11 | W-L-D: 8-8-3 |
| vs OPP 10-11 | W-L-D: 0-0-0 | vs OPP 10-11 | W-L-D: 0-0-0 |
| Win by 2 or More (10-11) | 7 of 38 games 18.4% | Win by 2 or More (10-11) | 5 of 38 games 13.2% |
| Lose by 2 or More (10-11) | 6 of 38 games 15.8% | Lose by 2 or More (10-11) | 7 of 38 games 18.4% |
| Over-Under | O-U: 3-0 | Over-Under | O-U: 0-0 |
| Road Over-Under | O-U: 1-0 | Home Over-Under | O-U: 0-0 |
| Over-Under vs Opp | O-U: 0-0 | Over-Under vs Opp | O-U: 0-0 |
| Total: 3 or More Goals | 3 of 3 games 100% | Total: 3 or More Goals | 0 of 3 games 0% |
| Total: 2 or Less Goals | 0 of 3 games 0% | Total: 2 or Less Goals | 3 of 3 games 100% |
| Total 10-11: 3 or More Goals | 21 of 38 games 55.3% | Total 10-11: 3 or More Goals | 18 of 38 games 47.4% |
| Total 10-11: 2 or Less Goals | 17 of 38 games 44.7% | Total 10-11: 2 or Less Goals | 20 of 38 games 52.6% |
