Italy @ Spain 7/1/2012
AccuScore.com, the leader in sports forecasting, has simulated this game thousands of times one play at a time and the game forecast below is based on these simulations.
There is a 26.7% chance of a draw. In simulations where the game is not a draw Spain, at 42.3%, are solid favorites to beat Italy who have a 30.9% chance. In simulation wins, Italy upsets Spain by averaging 12.8 shots and 4.6 shots on goal. They average 2.3 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.7 in simulation losses. Overall, the average simulation score is Spain 1.6 to Italy 1.3.
The leading goal scorer for Italy is Mario Balotelli with a 35% chance of scoring 1 or more goals. When he has at least one goal Italy has a 50% chance to win. The leading goal scorer for Spain is Cesc Fabregas with a 31% chance of scoring 1 or more goals. When he has at least one goal Spain has a 62% chance to win.
LINES: Italy +4.4 --- Spain +2.13 --- DRAW +3.09 --- TEAM RECORDS (W-L-D-Pts) Italy , , Spain ,